Is a U.S. Recession in 2025 Inevitable Due to the Trade War?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Talk of a potential recession in the United States in 2025 has intensified, closely linked to the prolonged trade war between the US and China. Experts warn that if there are no significant changes in the near future, the US may face a major recession by 2025.

Check out the full information below!

Rising Risk of Recession in 2025

Since President Trump took office for the second time, the US economy has been stable. However, it is now facing serious threats. Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo Global Management, recently warned that the US could potentially experience a recession by 2025, mainly due to the trade war with China.

This trade war not only increases uncertainty in the market, but also affects investment decisions in various sectors. This uncertainty, if it persists, could dampen economic growth and increase the risk of recession.

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Impact on Business and Employment

Not only is the likelihood of recession at 56%, the impact of this trade war is already being felt in the real world. Major retailers, such as Walmart and Target, are already preparing for potential supply shortages.

This supply shortage not only disrupts daily operations, but also has the potential to increase the price of goods for consumers. This could reduce consumer purchasing power and further slow economic growth. If this situation persists, the impact could be more widespread and profound.

It is not only large companies that are affected. Small businesses, particularly in the manufacturing sector, are also feeling the negative impact. The increased tariffs have driven up production costs, and many of these small businesses are already on the brink of bankruptcy.

If these conditions do not change, more small businesses may be forced to close. This will result in increased unemployment and a reduced quality of life for many. Small businesses are the backbone of the economy, and their demise can have far-reaching effects.

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Can Society Avoid Recession?

It is still unclear whether the US will actually enter a recession phase in 2025. However, one thing that is certain is that the trade war with China is having a major impact. If tariffs remain in place, society may see more job losses and higher costs.

Appropriate policy measures and effective negotiations may be able to mitigate these negative impacts. The government needs to work together with all parties to find solutions that can avoid recession and restore economic stability.

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Reference

• Coinpedia. US Recession Looming in 2025, Experts Warn, The Trade War Could Push US There. Accessed on April 30, 2025
• Featured Image: Cryptoslate