Altcoin Season is Coming Soon? Bitcoin’s Dominance Reaches 65%!

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC.D) dominance reached 64.98% in the first week of May, becoming the highest level in 2025 and the highest since 2021. Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market capitalization.

While some seasoned analysts expect this to trigger a recovery in altcoins, others are skeptical.

Analysts Split as Bitcoin Dominance Nears 65%

Analysts have long monitored BTC Dominance (BTC.D) as a leading indicator to predict the coming altcoin season. The 65% level is considered a significant historical resistance limit, and has been a concern for many analysts.

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An analyst named Darky believes that the 65% level could be BTC.D’s peak, and expects a sharp drop afterward. If this prediction is correct, then it could be a signal that the altcoin will start rallying.

The altcoin season usually starts when funds move from Bitcoin to altcoins, which eventually pushes BTC.D down to the support zone around 39%.

“BTC’s dominance will drop dramatically. Fill your pockets with altcoins,” Darky said.

In addition to the technical signal that 65% is a strong resistance, some analysts also highlighted the rising wedge pattern that started to form on the BTC.D chart. This classic pattern usually indicates a bearish reversal, supporting a strong downside scenario in Bitcoin’s dominance.

Other analysts also support the possibility of an altcoin season coming, but with a more cautious approach. Milk Road media, for example, states that altcoins are still lagging behind and expects BTC.D to have to rise above 70% first before there is a real rotation to altcoins.

“Only 17% of altcoins have outperformed BTC in the last 90 days. That’s not rotation. That means BTC dominance is still in control. Until that number crosses 70%, the altcoin season won’t happen yet. Not yet,” Milk Road said.

BTC.D rose from 64.4% to 65% in the first week of May, while the total crypto market capitalization fell from $3 trillion to $2.87 trillion. This suggests that funds are flowing out of altcoins more than Bitcoin, which is not enough to support a true altcoin season scenario.

It’s not Enough to Predict Altcoin Season Based on Bitcoin’s Dominance

Over the past three years, Bitcoin’s (BTC.D) dominance has steadily increased from 39% to 65%. During this period, many predictions about the coming altcoin season turned out to be missed and disappointing. As a result, many investors suffered deeper losses on their altcoin portfolios.

BTC.D’s prolonged rise has sparked increasing skepticism, and some of those doubts are accompanied by reasonable arguments. Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, argues that the involvement of institutional investors has fundamentally changed cyclical patterns.

“BTC dominance has just reached its highest peak this cycle. This cycle is different because when BlackRock and Saylor bought Bitcoin, they just kept it. They didn’t convert it to altcoins,” said Thomas Fahrer.

Nic, co-founder of Coinbase, gave a deeper look. He emphasized that predicting the altcoin season cannot rely solely on BTC.D data. Macroeconomic factors and on-chain data must also be supportive.

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Nic noted that historically, the altcoin season usually starts around 320 days after Bitcoin has bottomed out – which means, in theory, it should have started around May 2025.

However, according to him, a number of conditions have not been met, such as quantitative easing from central banks, increased retail investor interest in altcoins, and developer activity on the blockchain.

“What should happen before the real altcoin season starts: BTC dominance drops below 54%. The Fed officially ends quantitative tightening and signals a rate cut. Bitcoin holds at new highs while funds flow into altcoins – not out. Until then? I’ll assume any price spikes are just temporary disruptions,” Nic predicts.

At the time of writing, the market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) or TOTAL3 stands at $807 billion – down 28% since the beginning of the year.

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Reference:

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin Dominance Surge Signals the End of Altcoin Season. Accessed on May 6, 2025