Is History Repeating? Dogecoin’s ADX Sparks Rumors of $4.5 ‘Explosive’ Surge!

Jakarta, Pintu News – Analysts identified Dogecoin’s weekly ADX pattern reflecting a 2020 setup before its last big rally.

Dogecoin recorded a decline of 2.22% on June 17 and was trading at $0.1737. On a weekly basis, DOGE is still down by 9.08%.

However, according to recent analysis, the Average Directional Index (ADX) on Dogecoin’s weekly chart suggests a potential trend change.

The ADX indicator, which is used to measure the strength of a trend, is now showing a pattern similar to that of late 2020, just before the DOGE had its big rally.

Weekly ADX Setup Resembles 2020 Pre-Rally Conditions

A crypto analyst named Tardigrade has exposed Dogecoin’s ADX behavior over time.

Read also: Altcoin Ranking: 3 Most Favored Altcoins in 2025!

In his analysis, he pointed out that the current ADX pattern on the weekly chart is very similar to the structure seen between 2019 to 2020.

During that period, DOGE’s ADX started from a low (marked by the green arrow), then formed two peaks at mid-level, then dropped to a low before finally surging to the highest peak.

This movement is in line with Dogecoin’s huge rally, which rose from a price of $0.0025 in November 2020 to nearly $0.70 in May 2021.

Jumping to the 2024-2025 period, ADX again started from the lows and formed two intermediate peaks-first when DOGE reached $0.22 in May 2024, then $0.46 in December 2024.

After those two peaks, the ADX drops back down to another low, which Tardigrade depicts with a purple arrow on its chart.

Currently, the ADX is starting to rise again. A blue circle projected above the indicator indicates a possible breakout, which historically marks the peak of a bullish trend.

If the past pattern repeats, this potential breakout could push the price of DOGE close to $4.50-about 2,491% higher than the current price.

MVRV Score Shows DOGE Still in Bear Market Region

Meanwhile, another analyst named Kevin highlighted that Dogecoin’s MVRV score is still within the bear market zone. Dogecoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in the current cycle has only reached 3.5.

In comparison, DOGE once reached a peak MVRV of 11 in 2017 and 16 in 2021-two periods that marked major rallies in a full-blown bull market.

Read also: Dogecoin Tumbles 2% Today – Is This the Start of a Bearish Frenzy for DOGE?

According to Kevin’s observations, this relatively low MVRV figure suggests that Dogecoin, and the altcoin market as a whole, has not experienced a sustained cycle of price increases under current market conditions.

Kevin attributes the slow performance of altcoins to the still tight monetary policy and post-pandemic central bank policy adjustments. According to him, these macroeconomic conditions have caused altcoin momentum to move more cautiously, so big rallies like in the past have been delayed.

He stated that this situation will eventually change and give altcoins room to gain momentum. Kevin also added that investors should buy altcoins when valuations are still low and avoid emotional attachment to the assets.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• The Crypto Basic. Dogecoin ADX Pattern Resembles 2020 Setup, Eyes Now On 4.5 Or More. Accessed on June 18, 2025