Revealed! More than a Third of US Inflation Data is Only Estimates

Jakarta, Pintu News – Growing skepticism about US inflation statistics has intensified after it was revealed that more than a third of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in August 2025 was estimated rather than directly observed. This raises serious questions about the accuracy of data that is an important reference for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

CPI Estimates Rise, Investor Confidence Declines

In August 2025, the proportion of estimated prices in the US CPI reached 36%, up from 32% in July. This was the highest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) began tracking the metric. The increase surprised many and raised concerns about the reliability of the data used to measure inflation.

The increase in the proportion of these estimates suggests a potential distortion in the understanding of true inflation. Investors and analysts are becoming more critical of the data released, given its huge impact on investment decisions and monetary policy.

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Fed Policy Under the Spotlight

The CPI is the leading indicator used by the Federal Reserve to measure consumer inflation and an important basis for interest rate setting and monetary policy. However, the mismatch between price pressures felt by households and official data can complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting strategy.

Questions regarding these data may also reduce public confidence in the policy signals given by the Fed. This in turn could affect market expectations and overall economic stability.

Pressure for BLS Transparency

Economists and market participants urged the BLS to be more transparent regarding the components of the CPI that use imputed data as well as the methodology used in the estimation. While imputation is a common statistical practice, the sheer scale of its use today has surprised many observers and emphasized the need for stronger disclosure.

This transparency is expected to help restore confidence in the inflation data released, allowing market participants to make more informed decisions based on accurate and reliable information.

Conclusion

The uncertainty arising from the use of estimated data in calculating the US CPI has raised serious concerns among investors and policymakers. Efforts to improve data transparency and accuracy are essential to ensure that monetary policy can be implemented effectively and market confidence is maintained.

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Reference

• BeInCrypto. Why Smart Investors No Longer Trust US CPI. Accessed on September 18, 2025