Crypto Market Analysis Today (10 August 2026): US Jobs Data Misses, Bitcoin Back Above $65,000

Article Summary

• 📈 Bitcoin gained 3.46% to $65,193, Ethereum 3.70% to $1,922, and Solana 5.36% to $76.61 over seven days.
• 🏦 Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $853.54 million in net inflows for the week ending 7 August, the largest since mid-April.
• 📉 The July US jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, and the dollar index fell to 99.4.
• ⛓️ Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score sits at 0.35 as of 5 August, far from valuation extremes.
• 🗓️ The nearest macro catalyst is the July US inflation release scheduled for Wednesday, 12 August.

Market Conditions This Week (10 August)

Last week was the first positive week after a month of stagnant trading. Gains were spread evenly across the three major assets.

Market data per CoinMarketCap, 10 August 2026. Rupiah conversion uses the Bank Indonesia JISDOR rate of Rp17,913 per US dollar as of 7 August 2026.

Fear and Greed Index CoinMarketCap: 41 (Neutral).

Notice one thing from this table: BTC is the only one of the three majors that actually broke through its nearest resistance this week. ETH stopped right before the $1,940 zone and SOL remains capped below $78.14, two levels that have repeatedly rejected price since June. This week’s gains also came alongside a 16.30% drop in volume, which points more to selling pressure drying up than to a wave of new buyers stepping in.

Macroeconomic Analysis: US Labour Market Weakens and Rate Hike Odds Shrink

The biggest catalyst last week was the nonfarm payroll report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, 7 August. The US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. What made the report heavier were the backward revisions, with May cut from 129,000 to 63,000 and June from 57,000 to 20,000, turning the picture of the past three months from slowing to stalled.

Money markets reacted immediately. The US dollar index fell 0.5% to 99.4, close to a two-month low per Trading Economics data, while the two-year US Treasury yield sat at 4.22% and the ten-year at 4.67%. The question facing markets now is how likely the Federal Reserve is to raise rates again in September, and the jobs miss pushed those odds lower. A weaker dollar also makes dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin feel cheaper to buyers outside the US, including Indonesian investors purchasing in Rupiah.

One data point moved the other way. The July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 from 53.3, the fastest expansion since May 2022. Manufacturing strengthened while job creation shrank, a combination that makes this week’s inflation release the deciding factor for what comes next.

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US Macroeconomic Calendar

Crypto Market Analysis Today: BTC, ETH, and SOL Technicals

BTC: Price Reclaims the 78.6% Fibonacci Area After Losing It

BTC is trading at $65,231.9 and has edged just above the 78.60% Fibonacci level at $65,118.9. That level previously acted as support before flipping to resistance in June, so this thin break still needs a few more days of confirmation.

• Nearest resistance: $65,118.9, the level just cleared and now the first test if price turns back down.
• Next resistance: $74,886.1, a high that has not been retested since early June.
• Major resistance: $78,505.8, the upper bound of the monthly range.
• Demand zone: roughly $62,000 to $63,500, the area that held price through July and early August.
• Support: $61,072.4, a level that has repeatedly held price since late June.

ETH: $1,940 Resistance Keeps Capping Price in Recent Weeks

ETH closed at $1,926.78 in recent sessions, sitting right below a zone that has rejected every attempt higher for several weeks.

• Nearest resistance zone: roughly $1,940 to $1,980, formerly support and flipped to resistance since mid-June.
• Far resistance: roughly $2,400 to $2,450, a large supply zone dating back to April.
• Support zone: roughly $1,780 to $1,830, previously resistance and now the nearest floor.
• Far support: $1,571.04, the June low that has not been retested.

The $1,830 to $1,940 range remains ETH’s main playing field. A break of either side would give a clearer direction for the coming weeks.

SOL: Price Targets a Reclaim of $76.98

SOL is trading around $76.98 after clearing the grey zone that capped price through July. It posted the largest gain among the three majors over the past week.

• Nearest resistance: $78.14, formerly support before flipping in early June.
• Supply zone: roughly $84 to $88.
• Major resistance: $96.50, with a supply zone of $92 to $96.50 sitting just beneath it.
• Neckline and support: $68.09, with a demand zone of roughly $64 to $68 below it.

If SOL fails to hold above $68.09, it would weaken the overall price structure.

On-Chain Data and Institutional Flows

Spot ETF Flows

On the institutional side, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive days of inflows from 3 to 7 August totalling $853.54 million, peaking at $244.42 million on 5 August. Total Net Assets rose from $76.29 billion to $79.50 billion, while cumulative inflows since launch reached $52.18 billion.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded roughly $245.5 million in inflows, extending a positive trend into a fifth straight week. Combined, the two products drew around $1.1 billion. Even so, spot Bitcoin ETFs still show roughly $4.5 billion in outflows across 2026, so the annual trend has not yet turned positive.

On-Chain Data

The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market capitalisation with its realized cap, the value of all BTC measured at the price each coin last moved. The score sits at 0.35 as of 5 August 2026 with a realized cap of $1.08 trillion. A reading below one places Bitcoin well away from the valuation zone that typically appears at cycle tops, and it has not entered the historically cheap zone below zero either.

Supply held by long term holders, wallets that have not moved their BTC for more than 155 days, stood at 16,723,925 BTC as of 1 August 2026 with price at $62,756. That figure is near the chart’s all-time high and has climbed significantly after a brief decline in early 2026.

Key Crypto News of the Week

• Strategy sold Bitcoin. The company offloaded 1,638 BTC worth roughly $104.7 million on 3 August at an average price of about $63,957. Its remaining holdings stand at 842,138 BTC.
• Coldcard wallet exploit. A security flaw in the Coldcard hardware wallet caused roughly $89 million in losses across more than 1,000 wallets.
• CLARITY Act delayed. Digital asset legislation stalled in the US Senate ahead of the August recess, with a vote expected to slip to September.

Catalyst Watchlist for This Week

Best and Worst Performing Crypto Assets

Period of 10 August 2026 for top 100 crypto assets (source: CoinGecko).

Best performers:

• Worldcoin +11.6%
• Pump.fun +10.7%
• Monero (XMR) +4.1%
• World Liberty Financial +2.5%

Worst performers:

• Audiera -19.1%
• MemeCore (M) -3.8%
• Cronos -2.5%
• Pi Network (PI) -2.3%

Disclaimer

All information presented in this article is compiled for educational and general informational purposes, and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an invitation to buy or sell any particular crypto asset. Every investment decision rests entirely with the reader, taking into account their own financial condition, investment objectives, and risk tolerance.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did the Bitcoin price rise this week?

The gain was around 3.46% over seven days, and the main trigger was the July US jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 jobs. That weak reading lowered the odds of a September rate hike and weakened the dollar, two conditions that typically favour risk assets.

What does an MVRV Z-Score of 0.35 mean?

The score compares Bitcoin’s market value with what holders actually paid for their coins. A reading of 0.35 means the current price is not far from the market’s average cost basis, so Bitcoin is not in the valuation zone that has historically preceded cycle tops.

Why are ETF flows worth watching?

Spot ETFs are the main channel for institutional money entering Bitcoin and Ethereum, so the direction of flows shows whether large-scale demand is growing or shrinking. The data is published daily and weekly, making it relatively easy to follow.

Which data release matters most next week?

The July US inflation figures on Wednesday, 12 August. Inflation coming in higher than expected could revive September rate hike odds and pressure risk assets.