Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high (ATH) of nearly $110,000. What’s next for BTC? Data suggests that retail investors have yet to begin accumulating. Read the full analysis by the Pintu Trader Team.
President Trump has been in office for only three days, but his administration’s actions and the potential impact of his policy agenda are already being reflected in the markets.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have climbed nearly 2% since Trump assumed office on Monday, with both indexes approaching record highs last seen in early December. However, the effects have been more significant in specific market segments, including crypto market, the dollar, and techn stocks, as Trump rolls out a series of executive orders and sets his policy priorities.
Technology stocks have surged this week, fueled by Trump’s announcement of a $500 billion infrastructure initiative, nicknamed “Stargate.” Standing alongside AI and tech leaders such as Sam Altman of OpenAI and Masayoshi Son of Softbank Group, Trump unveiled a plan to invest heavily in AI infrastructure. The initiative will involve Oracle, Softbank, OpenAI, and MGX, with initial technology partners including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Arm Holdings.
The plan includes building data centers across the U.S. and is projected to create over 100,000 jobs. “AI seems to be very hot. It’s what a lot of smart people are focusing on, and this will bring unprecedented prosperity to our country,” Trump said, calling it the “golden age of America.”
Following the announcement, shares of AI-focused companies rallied sharply, with Arm Holdings up 15% and Oracle gaining 11%.
Meanwhile, stocks tied to space exploration and travel have extended gains since Trump’s election victory in November. His well-known support for space exploration—highlighted by the establishment of the Space Force during his first term—and his close ties with SpaceX founder Elon Musk have driven investor enthusiasm for the sector. Trump reiterated his commitment to space in his inauguration speech, declaring, “We will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.” Stocks such as Intuitive Machines, Redwire, and Rocket Labs USA have seen impressive gains of 23%, 43%, and 23%, respectively, since Trump took office.
In contrast, electric vehicle (EV) stocks have struggled. Trump’s first-day revocation of 78 executive orders included rolling back a mandate requiring 50% of U.S.-manufactured cars to be electric by 2030. He also directed his administration to review and potentially eliminate “unfair subsidies” and market distortions favoring EVs. Smaller EV companies like Lucid and Rivian saw their stocks drop 12% and 10%, respectively, while Tesla shares have dipped 2%, despite Elon Musk’s close relationship with Trump.
Crypto, however, have benefited from Trump’s presidency. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of nearly $110,000 shortly after his inauguration and has gained over 2% since Monday. Dubbed the “crypto President,” Trump has hinted at a more favorable regulatory environment for the crypto industry and even teased the creation of a national bitcoin reserve. While he didn’t mention crypto in his inaugural speeches, the SEC announced the formation of a task force to collaborate with the industry on clearer regulations, boosting optimism for the sector.
Currency markets have seen mixed movements since Trump took office. The U.S. dollar index has slightly weakened overall, but the dollar has strengthened against the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. This comes in response to Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from both countries starting February 1—a more hawkish stance than expected. However, Trump’s campaign-trail rhetoric about universal tariffs appears to be on hold for now, which has softened inflation expectations and, in turn, reduced pressure on the dollar against other currencies.
BTC recently hit an all time high of $109,588, but its price has since declined by 8%, partly due to a drop in retail trading activity.
With waning demand from retail investors, BTC’s price could face further downward pressure in the short term.
retail traders, who often drive smaller but significant market moves have reduced their Bitcoin accumulation over the past month.
The report highlights that on-chain activity for BTC transactions worth $10,000 or less has dropped by 19.34% in recent days. This decline was observed even as Bitcoin reached its ATH of $109,588 on Monday, indicating reduced participation from retail investors during this period.
This trend is particularly noteworthy given BTC’s heightened volatility. Typically, periods of significant price swings see increased on-chain activity as retail investors buy dips or take profits during rallies. However, the reduced transaction activity suggests that retail traders are not engaging with BTC as actively as expected under such market conditions.
Additionally, despite the excitement surrounding the ATH, retail investors are not holding their BTC positions for long. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that this group has shortened their holding periods by 15% over the past month, signaling declining confidence among smaller investors.
When retail traders reduce holding periods, it often indicates caution and a lack of confidence, leading to more frequent buying and selling cycles. This dynamic can increase market volatility and contribute to further downward pressure on BTC’s price.
Without significant participation from retail traders, the BTC market may struggle to sustain its upward momentum. If retail investors continue selling, Bitcoin’s price could drop to $94,523 as the next key support level.
Conversely, if retail traders resume accumulation, BTC could regain its momentum, attempt to reclaim its ATH, and potentially push beyond it.
The next price movements will largely depend on whether smaller investors regain confidence and re-engage with the market.
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