Why is Bitcoin (BTC) Following the 2024 Summer Trend? Check out the Next Prediction!

Jakarta, Pintu News – Amid recession risks and macro uncertainties back in the headlines, Bitcoin BTC->Current BTC PriceRp 0Market Cap-Trading Volume-Circulating Supply- has seen a 20% drop from its peak. However, macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) argues that overall economic conditions are not as bad as some headlines portray, although some data points to weaker growth as early as 2025.

Tomas’s Latest Analysis

Tomas pointed out that some indicators started to decline in February but have started to stabilize. His analysis of the US growth nowcast, which aggregates various measures of economic growth in real-time, showed a decline throughout February but has stabilized over the past three weeks.

Tomas also referred to the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which tracks how actual economic data compares to consensus estimates. Since January, the CESI has been on the decline, signaling that data releases have been below expectations, but has also shown recent stabilization.

According to Tomas, these data do not fully reflect recessionary conditions. The stabilization in some of these indicators suggests that there may be room for recovery or at least, a less deep decline. This approach offers a more optimistic perspective compared to the pessimistic view that often appears in news headlines.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Historical Parallels

Tomas then drew attention to the parallels between current conditions and two episodes that occurred in the past: the Summer 2024 turbulence and the late 2018 crash. In both cases, global markets experienced sharp declines triggered by what he called “growth/recession fears,” coupled with other external pressures.

According to Tomas, both incidents are very similar to the current situation both in terms of price action and macro background. During Summer 2024, concerns over growth coupled with the cancellation of yen carry trades led to a 10% decline in equity markets. In late 2018, the escalating trade fight during the first tariff move of the Trump era also triggered an initial correction in equities of around 10%, which then deteriorated into a further drawdown of 15%.

Future Market Outlook

With equity markets also experiencing a drop of around 10% from peak to recent bottom, Tomas sees clear similarities with those historical moments. Bitcoin (BTC), which fell by around 30% in Summer 2024 and 54% at the end of 2018, has fallen by around 30% this time around. Tomas questions, will the market follow a relatively controlled correction like in Summer 2024, or will it plunge into more painful losses similar to the massive sell-off of late 2018?

Tomas tends to expect a scenario more similar to Summer 2024 than the chaos of 2018. He believes that tariffs may not be as bad as many expect, a view that also helps explain the recent resilience of risk assets. Tomas adds that most leading indicators still favor a sustained business cycle expansion, which is less reflective of the contractionary signals that rattled investors nearly seven years ago.

Conclusion

Amidst the saturation of discussions on economic policy catalysts, Tomas admits his fatigue. “I’m really tired of all the tariff talk,” he wrote, while reminding that April 2 will be decisive. At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $86,557.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• NewsBTC. Why Bitcoin Mirrors Summer 2024 & What’s Next. Accessed on March 26, 2025
• Featured Image: Generated by AI