Latest Bitcoin Peak Prediction: Delayed Until End of 2026, Business Cycle Analysts Give Warning

Jakarta, Pintu News – The cryptocurrency market is always full of unpredictable dynamics, and Bitcoin BTC->Current BTC PriceRp 0Market Cap-Trading Volume-Circulating Supply-, as the leading digital asset, is often a barometer of global economic changes. Business cycle analyst, Tomas, recently shared his views on how a short and shallow business cycle that starts in 2023 and tapers off in 2024, could potentially affect the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in the future.

Global Business Cycle Analysis and Its Impact

Tomas uses four global economic indicators to analyze the business cycle, including the reverse trade-weighted dollar index, the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield, and the copper/gold ratio. From this data, he developed a z-score called the Global Economic Index (GEI).

According to Tomas, the GEI did not show a significant increase in 2023 and 2024, and declined in late 2024 to early 2025, signaling the end of the business cycle. The GEI, which has previously been a good predictor of the US Manufacturing PMI, indicates that there is a new business cycle starting to develop, which is expected to peak in late 2026 or 2027. Tomas emphasized that the stock market usually precedes business survey indicators but tends to lag behind the GEI.

Also Read: Bitcoin plummets to $70,000, global tariff tensions trigger investor concerns

Bitcoin: An Unexpected Asset

While the relationship between the GEI, stock market, and PMI usually holds true for most risk assets, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to deviate from its usual volatility associated with the macro environment. Tomas acknowledged that Bitcoin (BTC) has withstood the usual downturn at the “end of the business cycle”.

It also considers the possibility that Bitcoin (BTC) may simply be lagging behind the stock market. If Bitcoin (BTC) continues to follow its historical relationship with the business cycle, it could challenge the four-year truncation cycle theory that investors and analysts have been clinging to.

Also Read: Bitcoin plummets to $70,000, global tariff tensions trigger investor concerns

Economic Outlook and Implications for Bitcoin

Tomas also highlighted that if the Global Economic Index does not maintain its recent bounce and instead reverses to a new low, the outlook could become even more bearish. He suggested that the recovery seen in early 2025 in the copper/gold ratio and shipping rates may have been accelerated by the tariff announcement, which may not be as strong as it appears.

With the current GEI signaling the start of a new business cycle, Tomas warns that this could extend the time until the next Bitcoin (BTC) peak to late 2026 or even 2027, which challenges assumptions about the continued validity of Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year truncation cycle.

Conclusion

With all this analysis and speculation, investors and market watchers must remain vigilant and informed. Understanding the dynamics of the global business cycle and its relationship to the cryptocurrency market can provide valuable insights in navigating this often unpredictable market.

Also Read: Can Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Reach $100? Check out the Technical Analysis!

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• NewsBTC. Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed to Late 2026: Expert. Accessed on April 10, 2025
• Featured Image: Generated by AI