Bitcoin Price Forecast According to Analysts: Key Scenarios for the FOMC Decision!

Updated

May 7, 2025

Gambar Bitcoin Price Forecast According to Analysts: Key Scenarios for the FOMC Decision!

Jakarta, Pintu News – With the policy decision of the Federal Open Market Committee to be announced on May 7, 2025 US time, Bitcoin traders are facing a turning point influenced by macroeconomic factors that could determine price movements until next summer.

Most analysts expect that the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, will keep interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, with a 98.2% probability of unchanged policy. However, while this is almost certain, the political situation and monetary policy remain in the spotlight.

FOMC Policy Review and Its Impact on Bitcoin

$BTC and our big longs FOMC analysis

Bitcoin may top but only short term

Keyword 'may' and 'short term'. And as you know, I don't put money on the 'mays' 'maybes' 'potantially's' 'ifs' only hard data and sound market logic.

But the FOMC is our (by now) trademarked analysis… pic.twitter.com/E6Hsprhc0M
— Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) May 5, 2025

When the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at the same level, the focus of Bitcoin traders is not just on whether there is a change in interest rate policy, but rather how the market responds to the tone delivered by Powell in the press conference following the announcement.

Some analysts, such as Josh Rager, expect high volatility after the FOMC announcement. According to him, Bitcoin’s price movements will be heavily influenced by the direction of Powell’s speech which will most likely indicate whether the Fed plans to cut interest rates in the future.

Another analyst, Astronomer, uses a proven model that can predict price reversals with over 85% accuracy. According to him, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will ignore a potential price reversal after the FOMC decision, given the already strong upward price trend in recent months.

Also Read: 3 Altcoins Ready to Surge Before SEC-BlackRock Meeting, See Why!

Potential Scenario: Upgrade or Correction?

Two main scenarios could occur after the FOMC announcement. If Powell adopts a dovish tone and indicates a possible rate cut in June, then the bullish momentum on Bitcoin is likely to continue. In this case, many analysts expect Bitcoin’s price could continue to rise without much correction.

However, if Powell shows a more hawkish tone and emphasizes that inflation remains an issue to watch out for, there will likely be a drop in Bitcoin price to lower support areas, such as around $92,000.

The Columbus analyst, who looks at micro market structures, predicts that if Powell speaks with a hawkish tone, we could see Bitcoin drop to important support zones, including the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement area around $91,800 to $92,400. Nonetheless, he still believes that the main trend is still on an upward path in the long term.

Technical Indicators and Bitcoin Price Momentum

Technical analysis also shows some important signals regarding Bitcoin’s momentum. The Daily MACD, for example, shows signs of weakening momentum, which could indicate a potential price correction in the near future. However, despite these short-term bearish signals, the long-term trend still shows upside potential if Bitcoin is able to hold above key support levels.

Overall, the FOMC decision will be a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, with the main factor that will influence the price being how Powell provides forward guidance regarding monetary policy and inflation. If he emphasizes the importance of patience and signals an interest rate cut, then Bitcoin prices could get a positive boost. Conversely, if he expresses further concerns about inflation, the market will probably react negatively, causing a correction in Bitcoin price.

Conclusion

The FOMC decision will greatly affect the price movement of Bitcoin in the short term. Traders will be closely monitoring how Jerome Powell expresses his views on future monetary policy. In the event of a reversal or price correction, support around $92,000 becomes an important level to watch. Conversely, if policy guidance is more dovish, Bitcoin may continue to accelerate to higher levels.

Also Read: New Hampshire Becomes a Pioneer, Officially Keeping Bitcoin as a Reserve!

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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