Jakarta, Pintu News – The crypto market has seen an impressive rise since April, culminating with Bitcoin’s (BTCD) all-time high on May 22.
However, altcoins did not experience similar gains. Most altcoins are still trading well below their all-time highs.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s dominance has been declining since early May. This decline raises an important question: Will the crypto market enter altcoin season in 2025, or will Bitcoin’s dominance continue?
Let’s examine some graphs to find the answer.
According to CCN (5/29), Bitcoin’s (BTCD) dominance has been increasing steadily since July 2022, moving in an ascending parallel channel pattern on the weekly chart. Despite the gradual rise, BTCD is mostly at the top of that channel, which is a bullish (positive) signal.
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However, in early May, BTCD fell sharply after touching a strong resistance level at around 65%, which was reinforced by horizontal resistance and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The price briefly bounced off the centerline of the channel, but the technical indicators are showing signs of weakness.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator confirmed a bearish divergence following the drop, while the MACD indicator approached a bearish crossover (black circle), both indicating further downside potential.
If the price breaks below the centerline of the channel, this will likely confirm a larger trend shift towards outperforming altcoins – commonly referred to as altcoin season.
On the six-hour chart, BTCD briefly rose past the 0.618 Fib retracement level before falling back down, forming a bearish deviation (black circle).
Despite the decline, the structure of the move resembles an A-B-C correction (red color), not a full-fledged impulsive move.
This suggests that there could still be a final push towards the 64.75% level in the short term before a more significant trend reversal occurs.
The next chart, Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP), hints at a possible altcoin season in the second half of 2025. ALTCAP started its upward movement in five waves (green color) since April and is currently in an extended third wave.
Its sub-wave count is marked in black, indicating a consolidation phase within the symmetrical triangle pattern. This suggests that the fourth wave is underway and leads to a potential breakout from the triangle pattern.
Although ALTCAP is currently still trading below the important resistance level of $1.26 trillion, its wave structure indicates that a breakout is likely.
After the breakout, the fourth wave could return to test and confirm the area as a new support level.
Then, the most parabolic phase of the altcoin season will occur in the fifth wave.
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The RSI indicator also supports this bullish prediction as it shows a hidden bullish divergence (orange color), signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
Bitcoin’s dominance rate has decreased in the first week of May, and is currently still within the resistance area. On the other hand, altcoin market capitalization (ALTCAP) is trying to break through its resistance level.
The combination of these two charts creates conditions that favor an altcoin season in the second half of 2025.
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*Disclaimer
This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.
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