XRP Price Set for a 20% Drop Before Its Next Big Surge, On-Chain Data Warns!

Jakarta, Pintu News – XRP is still up almost 26% in the past week, trading at $2.93 after touching $3.01.

Although this surge has reawakened bullish sentiment, on-chain data suggests a possible short-term correction is in sight.

The surge in whale transactions and rising reserves on exchanges created conditions similar to previous local price peaks, indicating a potential drop of up to 20% before XRP price resumes its uptrend.

Exchange Reserves Show Caution Signal

XRP reserves on the exchange (Binance) have risen to the highest level since January 2025 at 2.96 billion, indicating potential selling pressure in the near future.

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According to CryptoQuant, the last time the reserve reached such high levels was in May 2025, when the price of XRP was around $2.54. That period was followed by a 20% correction, with the token price dropping to $2.01 in the following weeks.

An increase in reserves on an exchange usually means that more tokens are being moved to the exchange; a condition that is often associated with a potential sell-off in the near future.

The current trend mirrors the peak that occurred in May, which increases the likelihood of a short-term decline in the XRP price.

Highest Whale Transaction in 3 Months

Supporting this analysis, the number of XRP transactions by Whale worth more than $1 million jumped to the highest level in the past three months.

Historically, large-value transfer spikes often precede a distribution and price correction phase, where large holders unwind their positions at local price peaks.

The timing of the spike in this metric coincided with an increase in reserves on the exchange, further strengthening the bearish argument.

XRP Price Potentially Corrects to $2.34

From a technical perspective, the recent move from $1.90(swing low) to $3.03(recent high) places the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.34-a crucial zone that is often magnetized during consolidation or correction phases.

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A drop from the current XRP price of $2.93 to $2.34 would reflect a 20% correction. This level is in line with the drop that occurred in May, which was also preceded by a spike in exchange reserves.

The nearest short-term supports are at $2.80 (standard support line) and $2.77 (0.236 Fib level), two points that were previously footholds during the price drop. If the price breaks down from these levels, the downward momentum could get stronger towards the $2.34 Fibonacci level.

This bearish scenario will be rendered invalid if XRP is able to hold above $2.77 while exchange reserves begin to decline. This would indicate a return to accumulation instead of distribution.

If the token is able to maintain this support and the Whales stop selling, then bullish momentum could return. This could potentially push the price of XRP to retest the $3.03 level, which is an important area in the current XRP news cycle.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. XRP Price Could Drop 20% Before Next Rally, Data Shows. Accessed on July 17, 2025