Is Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle Over? Here’s How the Experts See It!

Jakarta, Pintu News – The cryptocurrency market has been known to follow a pattern of bull and bear cycles every four years, often centered on the Bitcoin halving.

However, some analysts and industry players are beginning to doubt whether this pattern still holds. They argue that new factors such as institutional adoption, the development of ETFs, and macroeconomic conditions are beginning to shift the role of central halving as a key market driver.

Here are explanations from crypto experts ranging from Jason Williams, Pierre Rochard, to Seamus Roca sharing the full explanation!

“Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle is Dead” Claims Grow Louder

Author and investor Jason Williams sparked a debate with his assertion on X that Bitcoin holdings by the top 100 treasury firms have almost reached 1 million BTC, or the equivalent of about Rp1,993 trillion (at a BTC price of about Rp1.99 billion per coin). According to him, this is the reason why Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is over.

A similar view is shared by Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, who predicts a positive outcome in 2026, so he dares to say that this cyclical pattern is no longer relevant.

He referred to the trend of BTC price peaks that usually occur a year after the halving, namely 2013, 2017, 2021, and the expected 2025, but this time it is predicted to be different.

Also read: LayerZero Foundation Acquires Stargate in $110 Million Deal, Here Are the Details!

New Factors Shift Halving’s Role

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, said on X that halving is now “irrelevant to market movements” as 95% of BTC supply has already been mined.

According to him, BTC supply is more affected by early owner sell-offs(OGs) while demand comes from a combination of retail purchases, the entry of ETP products into investment platforms, and accumulation by treasury companies.

Martin Burgherr, Chief Clients Officer at Sygnum Bank, added that while halving remains a reference point, it is now just one of many factors.

He sees macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption as equally important in shaping crypto market behavior.

Also read: BTC price reaches $122,000, ETH hits $4,300, what are the factors for the rise?

Parties who believe the cycle is still in effect

While the narrative of the “death” of crypto’s 4-year cycle is becoming more and more common, there are those who still believe that this pattern is still valid. A crypto analyst by the name of “CRYPTO₿IRB” calls the view that this cycle is gone “wrong.”

According to him, the presence of ETFs actually strengthens the 4-year cycle because the traditional financial world also follows the 4-year presidential political cycle, so the correlation between crypto and tradfi increases.

He emphasized that the Bitcoin (BTC) halving cycle is mathematically impossible to cancel, as it is hard-wired into the protocol. This leads him to believe that old patterns will continue to influence the price, even if other factors come into play.

Read also: What are the Investment Strategies of Crypto Whales in a $4 Trillion Market?

Bear Market Risk Remains

Xapo Bank CEO, Seamus Rocca, even warned that the risk of a prolonged bear market is still real. He notes that while many say the presence of institutions will “kill” the Bitcoin cycle, he doesn’t entirely agree. According to him, this cyclical nature is a natural part of the cryptocurrency market and will not necessarily disappear just because the market structure changes.

In other words, while the crypto market is now more mature and complex, the psychological patterns and supply-demand dynamics underlying the 4-year cycle are likely still at play.

Conclusion

The debate over the continuation of cryptocurrency’s 4-year cycle shows that the market is now at a crossroads between historical patterns and new factors. Whether this cycle is truly over or just evolving, time and price movements in the coming years will tell.

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This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Cointelegraph. Is the four-year crypto cycle dead? Believers are growing louder. Accessed August 12, 2025.
• Featured Image: Generated by AI