Arthur Hayes: “Bitcoin(BTC)’s 4 Year Cycle is Over, Long Live Liquidity!”

Updated

October 10, 2025

Gambar Arthur Hayes: “Bitcoin(BTC)’s 4 Year Cycle is Over, Long Live Liquidity!”

Jakarta, Pintu News – The long-held view that Bitcoin prices follow a four-year rhythm is now considered obsolete. Through his blog, Arthur Hayes recently revealed that the market dynamics have fundamentally changed. What did he say? Check it out in this article!

Crypto Market Paradigm Shift

According to Arthur Hayes, the four-year cycle theory that many crypto market participants have believed in is no longer relevant. In his latest blog, Hayes explains that it’s not the halving or the maturation of the market that is driving the Bitcoin (BTC) price up, but global liquidity.

Whenever liquidity increases, Bitcoin (BTC) price tends to rise, and conversely, when credit becomes tight, Bitcoin (BTC) price falls. The current state of the global economy, which is influenced by the monetary policies of major countries such as the United States and China, is a major factor.

These two countries, the world’s largest economies, are again using easy money policies to address various economic challenges, including inflation and deflation.

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US and China Monetary Policy

china and america ai regulation — Source: Asia Times

Hayes emphasized that the monetary policies of the United States and China have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC). In the United States, President Donald Trump has been pushing for interest rate cuts to spur the economy, while in China, President Xi Jinping is attempting to tackle severe deflation in a similar fashion.

These two countries, according to Hayes, will continue to influence the price dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC) through their policies. When these two countries decide to print more money, global liquidity increases, which in turn drives up the price of Bitcoin (BTC). This represents a shift from the four-year cycle that was once believed to be the main determinant of Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations.

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Populism and Economic Policy

Hayes also identified populism as an important factor in the current cycle. Both in the United States and in other countries, policies are often aimed at maintaining or increasing asset prices through money printing. This is different from the past, where policies focused more on inflation control and economic stabilization.

Hayes’ prediction that these populist policies will continue suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto assets may continue to see price increases. This is supported by the global tendency to keep economies liquid, which in turn supports the value of Bitcoin (BTC) as the “most powerful money”.

Conclusion

With the end of the quadrennial cycle, the future of Bitcoin (BTC) is now more dependent on global economic policy than internal factors of the crypto market. Hayes asserts that Bitcoin (BTC) remains the most powerful form of money, it’s just that its path forward will be shaped more by central bank decisions than by block rewards.

This understanding is important for investors and market participants to navigate the changes that occur in the crypto market. In the absence of a four-year cycle, investment strategies may need to be adjusted to account for external factors more than internal ones.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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