7 facts about XRP 2026 price projection according to 21Shares

Jakarta, Pintu News – Ripple is the focus of price analysts for 2026 with different projections based on a combination of market conditions, institutional adoption, and regulatory factors. Asset manager 21Shares, one of the issuers of XRP-related financial products, shared a price scenario that shows significant upside potential under optimistic conditions (bull case) and downside risks if adoption trends weaken in the long term.

These projections are important for both young and novice crypto investors who want to understand how fundamental variables may affect the price of XRP during 2026.

1. Bull Case Scenario: $2.69

In the 2026 bull case scenario, 21Shares expects XRP to reach USD 2.69, which is about 40% higher than the current reference level. This bull case is supported by strong institutional adoption, real-world asset (RWA) growth, and “supply exhaustion” triggering structural repricing. The rise to these levels reflects the belief that demand by large investors and XRP-related financial products can drive valuations higher.

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2. Base Case Scenario: $2.45

21Shares has also developed a base case target of around USD 2.45 for XRP in 2026.
This scenario is contingent on continued regulatory stability and capital inflows through financial products such as spot XRP ETFs. If this target materializes, the price of XRP will increase by around 30%-50% compared to the current price due to consistent institutional support.

3. Bear Case Scenario: $1.60

On the risk side, 21Shares sets the bear case at around USD 1.60, or a potential drop of around 16% from the benchmark price. This scenario occurs if adoption stagnates and investor capital rotates to other assets, reducing buying pressure on XRP. This bear case shows that despite major legal victories such as the settlement of the Ripple-SEC case, market risks remain if fundamental demand weakens.

4. Regulation and the XRP Spot ETF

21Shares emphasizes that regulatory stability is a key factor to support institutional capital flow into XRP through spot ETFs. Legal clarity was perceived by the market after the settlement of Ripple’s case with regulators in the US in 2025, removing long-term structural price barriers. The ETF product was able to attract substantial capital in its initial launch period, suggesting that institutional investors are entering this asset class more actively.

5. Supply and Demand Pressure

According to reports, XRP reserves on exchanges have dropped to a seven-year low, with institutional transactions through ETFs contributing to the supply vacuum in the spot market.
The decline in supply on exchanges could create conditions where strong demand pushes prices up more sharply if not offset by large sales of existing holders.
The combination of growing ETF demand and shrinking reserves contributes to the possibility of structural repricing.

6. Fundamental Risk Factors

The main risk in the bear case projection is if institutional adoption and demand stagnates, or investor capital moves to other crypto assets. Macroeconomic factors, changes in market sentiment, and competition from other digital assets could pressure XRP price expectations. Investors considering long-term exposure should pay close attention to on-chain data as well as broader global demand indicators.

7. Lessons for Beginner Investors

Price projections are not certainties; they are thinking tools based on current market assumptions that can change with the dynamics of the crypto industry. Young and novice investors need to understand that projections such as bull, base, and bear cases help plan for different risk and opportunity scenarios. Combining price predictions with fundamental analysis of XRPL, on-chain data, and macro conditions can help make more informed investment decisions.

Also Read: 5 Important Insights Predicted SHIB Will Drop First Before Reaching New ATH

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference
– U.Today. XRP to $2.69? Bull and Bear Case Targets Revealed in 2026 Price Prediction. Accessed January 29, 2026.