Gold Outperforms Bitcoin—Raoul Pal Calls It a Signal of an Upcoming BTC Rally

Updated

January 31, 2026

Gambar Gold Outperforms Bitcoin—Raoul Pal Calls It a Signal of an Upcoming BTC Rally

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin’s lagging performance compared to gold is back in the spotlight in the global crypto and cryptocurrency market. This condition is often considered a sign of weakening investor interest in digital assets. However, renowned macro investor Raoul Pal thinks this view is wrong. Through his podcast uploaded on Youtube with Milk Road, according to him, the delay in Bitcoin’s movement is actually a natural part of the global macroeconomic cycle.

Bitcoin and Gold’s Relationship in the Liquidity Cycle

Raoul Pal explains that the movement of gold and Bitcoin cannot be separated from the dynamics of global liquidity. Gold generally reacts faster to changes in financial conditions as it serves as an early indicator of economic stress. As government debt rises and interest expenses grow, authorities tend to inject liquidity into the system. The liquidity flow then spreads to various asset classes.

In many previous cycles, gold has always moved first before Bitcoin followed. Pal emphasizes that this phenomenon is not because gold is superior to Bitcoin, but rather due to differences in sensitivity to liquidity. If the price movements of Bitcoin and gold are compared with a lag of about six months, their patterns look aligned.

Crypto Market Still Underowned by Investors

According to Pal, one of the main factors holding back Bitcoin’s movement is the low crypto holdings among investors. Many market participants think the bull cycle is over, so they are reducing their exposure to cryptocurrencies. This sentiment has kept capital flows into the crypto market relatively limited. As a result, Bitcoin’s price movement appears to be lagging behind that of other assets.

However, this underowned condition has the potential to be a catalyst for an increase. Pal predicts that when Bitcoin starts to show a clear uptrend, investors will realize their positions are too small. In that situation, buying tends to happen quickly and aggressively. This pattern has been repeated in previous cycles, especially when global liquidity returns.

Why 2026 is considered a crucial year for Bitcoin

Raoul Pal also presented his analytical framework known as the “Everything Code”, which places global liquidity as the main factor in Bitcoin’s price movements. He said that about 90% of BTC fluctuations can be explained by changes in liquidity. Last year, the market did not get as big a liquidity boost as expected. The government chose to extend debt maturities, so the economic cycle shifted to be longer.

In addition, a number of unexpected events worsened the condition of the crypto market. The withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system as well as policy shocks had a major impact on risky assets. In October, the crypto market experienced massive liquidations across exchanges, which put pressure on Bitcoin and other digital assets. The impact of the event is still being felt, causing BTC to move flat despite stocks and gold setting new records.

Pal emphasized that crypto is on the risky end of the financial market spectrum. When liquidity disappears, these assets are usually hit the earliest. However, when liquidity comes back in, the recovery also tends to be the quickest. Based on this pattern, Pal thinks 2026 could potentially be an important phase for Bitcoin to catch up with gold.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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