Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks $70,000: Correction Complete or Just a Bear Market Trap?

Updated

March 4, 2026

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ChatGPT Perplexity

Summarize

ChatGPT Perplexity

Gambar Bitcoin (BTC) Breaks $70,000: Correction Complete or Just a Bear Market Trap?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin is back in the spotlight after the price of the largest cryptocurrency broke the $70,000 level for the second time in a week. This price surge has sparked debate among market participants as to whether Bitcoin (BTC) has truly bottomed out after months of correction, or if it is caught in a misleading bear market trap.

Amidst high volatility, investors and traders are now faced with uncertainty over market direction, especially with various external factors influencing price movements. This article will take an in-depth look at the factors that trigger price spikes, technical and on-chain analysis, and the potential risk of a bear market looming.

Fundamental and Geopolitical Factors Drive Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The increase in Bitcoin (BTC) price to $70,000 cannot be separated from a number of supporting fundamental factors. One of them is the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data which remains above market expectations, although it fell slightly to 52.4 in February 2026 from 52.6 in January.

This data signaled an expansion of the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month, providing positive sentiment for financial markets, including crypto assets. In addition, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs, regulatory progress through the CLARITY Act, as well as on-chain signaling that is starting to improve also reinforce the optimism of market participants. However, on the other hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between the United States and Iran, add to the uncertainty.

U.S. forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats… pic.twitter.com/0aHEyVHf5e
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 3, 2026

The surge in the US dollar index (DXY) to 98.72 levels last Tuesday showed increased demand for safe haven assets amid inflation concerns and delays in the Fed’s interest rate cuts. This situation has heightened market volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading volumes remaining large amid uncertainty over market direction. Market participants are now looking forward to important economic data such as ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls to determine their next move.

10x Research Analysis: Bear Market Trap Alert

Research firm 10x Research highlighted that short-term opportunities are beginning to emerge in the crypto market, but cautioned that market participants should not get caught up in momentary euphoria. According to 10x Research, it is important to stick to the data and conduct objective risk analysis, so as not to misinterpret Bitcoin’s (BTC) price rebound as a long-term trend change.

They cited Circle’s (CRCL) stock price surge of 55% in less than 10 days, despite the US-Iran conflict, but technically and on-chain, the crypto market is still showing bear market signals.

The analysis also compared the current situation with that of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. At that time, many considered the invasion to be a local bottom after a long correction, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) had risen 40% in a month.

However, after that, the price correction returned and the bearish trend continued. This serves as a warning that price spikes amid geopolitical uncertainty do not necessarily signal the end of a bear market.

On-Chain Signals: Optimism Limited, Risks Still Lurking

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price correction is starting to stabilize as momentum and on-chain activity improves. However, derivatives traders are still showing caution, while capital flows into the crypto market are still fragile despite selling pressure starting to ease. While spot indicators are improving, futures indicators are declining, and options are moderating.

Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have remained steady, signaling institutional interest is still strong. Nonetheless, on-chain indicators such as CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index and Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator still point to bear market conditions.

The indicator value below 0 and below the 365-day moving average is a confirmation that the risk of a decline in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is still quite large. Thus, despite signals of stabilization, the crypto market is not yet completely out of the bear market threat and the potential for further correction is still wide open.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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