
Jakarta, Pintu News – At this year’s Jackson Hole economic symposium, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, gave a fairly cautious view of current economic conditions. His speech highlighted the risks of rising inflation and a still fragile labor market.
With Powell’s term set to end in May 2026, and his potential successor who may have a softer approach to interest rates, financial markets, including crypto, may be in for significant changes.
Jerome Powell emphasized that rising tariffs have started to affect consumer prices, which is evident from core inflation reaching 2.9% in July. Despite inflationary pressures, Powell pointed out that the labor market is still showing uncertainty, with job growth slowing.
The Federal Reserve’s more flexible approach to its 2% inflation target suggests that it will not rush to cut interest rates unless economic data supports such a move.
This unprecedented policy opens up opportunities for policies that are more responsive to upcoming economic data. However, with political conditions likely to change, markets should be alert to possible changes in Fed leadership that could affect future monetary policy.
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The US bond market may see a slower and shallower easing path, especially if inflation does not show a convincing decline. This may cause yields on short-term bonds to remain high, and the yield curve may only steepen if there is weakness in growth data.
On the other hand, the US stock market probably won’t see a rapid expansion in stock price multiplication due to the cautious Fed. The stock market will continue to be influenced by each inflation data release and labor update, as well as communications from the Fed. Interest rate-sensitive stocks will probably remain vulnerable to inflation or wage hike surprises that could delay further rate cuts.
In the context of cryptocurrencies, the Fed’s approach of keeping interest rates higher for a longer time could limit speculative flows into altcoins and crypto-related equities.
However, sustained above-target inflation could sustain the hard asset narrative, which supports demand for assets that have scarcity or settlement finality, such as Bitcoin and other large tokens backed by cash flow.
If Powell’s replacement in 2026 is perceived as less cautious, the liquidity cycle could turn more in crypto’s favor. However, the journey to get there will be characterized by higher volatility as markets assess the new leadership and Senate confirmation.
With all this in mind, financial markets, including bonds, stocks, and cryptos, should prepare for a period characterized by patience and volatility. The Fed’s cautious strategy and potential future leadership changes demand market players to pay close attention to upcoming economic data and political dynamics.
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