Altcoin Season is Back! Crypto Market Explodes to $4 Trillion

Updated

September 15, 2025

Gambar Altcoin Season is Back! Crypto Market Explodes to $4 Trillion

Jakarta, Pintu News – The crypto market has officially entered the first confirmed altcoin season since December 2024, marked by a massive rally across the sector that pushed the global market capitalization beyond $4 trillion.

In previous seasons, this euphoria was short-lived as altcoin prices plummeted a few weeks later. Will history repeat itself, or is this cycle different? In this analysis, CCN reviews the factors driving the current surge.

Altcoins Record Explosive Gains

According to data from Blockchaincenter, the Altcoin Season Index jumped to 76 – its highest level since December 8, 2024. The index is used to measure whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. A score above 75 signals the start of the “altcoin season”, meaning that most of the top tokens are providing higher yields than BTC.

In simple terms, investors started shifting capital from Bitcoin to the broader altcoin market, in the hope of making greater profits.

The impact can go both ways. On the positive side, a strong altcoin season could trigger a quick rally in mid- and small-cap tokens, generating huge gains in the short term and increasing overall market liquidity.

However, history shows that such phases are also often followed by corrections, as overheated altcoins tend to be more volatile and vulnerable when momentum weakens.

In the last 30 days, a number of altcoins managed to drastically outperform Bitcoin. Among the top 100 tokens, the most prominent ones include:

Memecore (M): up 531%
MYX Finance (MYX): up 483%
Pump.fun : up 137%
OKB (OKB): up 115%
Story : up 80%

With the Altcoin Season Index now at 82, the data shows that altcoins are currently leading the market. However, the big question is: can this dominance last longer than the brief spike in late 2024?

As such, it’s important to further analyze the indicators that make up this cycle. In the following analysis, we will discuss the technical signals and macro factors that could determine whether the 2025 altcoin season is truly sustainable – or if it will evaporate as before.

ETH/BTC Bullish Pennant Pattern Has Been Broken

The first key indicator to look out for is the ETH/BTC ratio, which is a measure of Ethereum’s strength compared to Bitcoin. This ratio has long been considered an early signal for overall altcoin performance.

When ETH outperforms BTC, this usually encourages a wider capital turnover into altcoins. The rise in the ETH/BTC ratio has often coincided with the start of major altcoin rallies in previous cycles.

Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio has risen to the 0.040 level, breaking the upper trend line of the bullish pennant pattern.

On the daily chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is also showing signals of strength. The CMF has almost broken its downward trend, and if it manages to go higher, the next target is a clean break above the zero signal line.

This move would confirm that buying pressure is starting to return, strengthening the chances for Ethereum to continue its gains against Bitcoin. If this trend holds, it could be a real trigger for altcoin season, as when ETH leads the market, traders usually start to go deeper into other altcoins.

Fed’s Rate Cut Haunts, BTC Dominance Declines

In addition to signals from within the crypto market itself, macroeconomic factors also come into play. There are strong indications that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) this week.

Interest rate cuts typically add liquidity to the market, lower borrowing costs, and increase risk appetite across various asset classes. For the crypto market, this move is a breath of fresh air for altcoins, as it was in the last 3-4 months of 2024.

Another important indicator to monitor is Bitcoin (BTC.D) dominance. At the time of writing, BTC dominance is at 57.81%, but technically, it has broken below the horizontal support level of the descending triangle pattern.

Adding to the pressure, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator has also turned negative, indicating that Bitcoin’s momentum against the overall market is starting to weaken.

A decline in BTC dominance usually signals that capital is starting to shift to altcoins, which often triggers stronger rallies in the sector. If this trend continues, then it could be additional confirmation that altcoin season is on the rise.

Altcoin Season Target: $2.3 Trillion

To assess whether this altcoin season can continue, the main indicator used is TOTAL2 – the market capitalization of all cryptos, except Bitcoin. Currently, TOTAL2 stands at $1.7 trillion, reflecting the massive capital flow into altcoins.

The daily chart also shows a strengthening signal. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator has formed a bullish crossover, which is a technical signal that momentum is starting to shift to the buyer’s side.

Historically, bullish crossovers on the TOTAL2 chart often mark the beginning of major altcoin rallies. If this trend continues to hold, the 2025 altcoin season could potentially last longer, with market capitalization breaking the $2.3 trillion mark.

However, if the buying pressure on altcoins starts to weaken, or the Fed does not cut interest rates, then this altcoin season could end before next month. This scenario could also fail if Bitcoin’s dominance rises above 63% again.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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