Is Altcoin Season Just an Illusion? Here’s Why It May Not Be Real Yet

Jakarta, Pintu News – As reported by AMB Crypto, September has officially turned into “altcoin season”.

Billions of dollars poured into this market, pushing TOTAL3 (crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) to a new record of $1.16 trillion, which now accounts for about 28% of the total crypto market.

Altcoin Season Index Shows Sharp Spike

The Altcoin Season Index showed a sharp spike. The index rose to its cycle high of 80, meaning 40 of the top 50 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, with Pudgy Penguins leading the way.

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However, market euphoria is not yet apparent. The Fear and Greed Index shows no signs of extreme excitement, reflecting a stark contrast compared to previous altcoin rallies.

In short, it’s possible that traders are misreading the situation and thinking it’s “altcoin season”, when it could be a mere “pump-and-dump” pattern. Historically, altcoin rallies are usually accompanied by very optimistic market sentiment.

For example, in the last altcoin season (January and December 2024), the Fear and Greed Index reached the “extreme greed” zone when the Altcoin Season Index was close to 85. At that time, speculative rotation and market euphoria went hand in hand.

The SOL/BTC ratio also supports this trend – it peaked at around 0.03 and stabilized in that range throughout the year. But now, despite the massive “altcoin season”, the ratio is down almost 30%, indicating asset rotation without the usual market euphoria.

Altcoin Leverage Surge Could Be Misinterpreted as Full Altcoin Season

The Open Interest (OI) of altcoins has reached an all-time record high. As of September 17, 2025, the total OI of altcoins jumped to $38.9 billion, surpassing Ethereum at $29.4 billion and coming close to Bitcoin with $40.5 billion.

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This signals a huge market position and increased use of leverage, ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Solana leads this trend, with an OI of $7.6 billion, equivalent to 19.5% of the total altcoin OI.

Not only that, but the SOL/BTC ratio rose by 8.77%, suggesting that this momentum is likely driven by capital rotation flows into Solana. However, as noted by AMBCrypto, the market euphoria is yet to be seen.

Although leverage continues to increase and speculative capital is flowing into altcoins, overall capital flows are still relatively calm compared to previous cycles.

Additionally, Dogecoin showed a similar pattern. The DOGE/BTC ratio only rose by about 17%, far below the 60%-90% monthly spikes usually seen during previous altcoin seasons.

This suggests that the current altcoin rally is more speculative in nature, which makes altcoins vulnerable to sharp price fluctuations, especially after the FOMC decision later.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• AMB Crypto. Altcoins at risk – Why the true altseason isn’t here yet. Accessed on September 18, 2025