Will Bitcoin (BTC) Hit a New All-Time High? These 3 Conditions Could Decide

Jakarta, Pintu News – The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time in nine months. Can Bitcoin price now break its previous record high of $123,000?

On-chain analysts predict that the next two weeks will be a crucial period for price movements. They state that a new price record is highly likely if premiums in the futures market remain positive and open interest continues to rise during the period.

Futures Market Switches to ‘Risk On’ Mode

On Wednesday (17/9), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate of the United States by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. The majority of policymakers supported this cut.

Read also: Bitcoin Holds Steady at $117K Today — Twenty One Capital CEO Predicts a 200x Surge Ahead

Based on the Fed’s interest rate projection chart (dot plot), there will likely be an additional 50 basis points of cuts before the end of the year.

The crypto market responded proactively to this move. XWIN Research Japan, an analyst from on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, explained that open interest in the Bitcoin futures market returned to positive for the first time in three days.

The latest data shows a surge in long positions across major exchanges. Binance recorded the largest positive change at +$166 million, followed by OKX with +$131 million.

The analyst noted that sentiment in the derivatives market has now clearly shifted towards risk-taking. He explained that when interest rates fall, demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin tends to increase.

Sustainable Futures Premium and Increase in Open Interest are the Key Factors

Another analyst, Axel Adler Jr. emphasized the importance of the next two weeks. He pointed out that BTC futures contracts are currently trading at a premium to spot prices, with the basis continuing to be in the positive zone.

He also added that the 7-day basis is currently higher than the 30-day basis, which creates a bullish market atmosphere.

Read also: Over 500,000 Dormant XRP Wallets Are Holding 10.7 Million Tokens — What Does It Mean?

Adler Jr. estimates that there is a 70% chance that the Bitcoin price will either gradually trend upwards or move sideways (consolidate) over the next two weeks. He emphasized that it is important that the price does not drop during this period, and that the futures price remains above the spot price.

In addition, if the volume of open interest continues to increase, he believes the opportunity to set a new all-time high will be even greater. According to him, if this scenario materializes, then a price breakout above the ATH becomes increasingly likely.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin ATH Depends on These Three Preconditions After Rate Cut. Accessed on September 19, 2025