Is Solana at Risk? Analysts Warn of Potential 30% Drop Below $100

Updated

November 6, 2025

Gambar Is Solana at Risk? Analysts Warn of Potential 30% Drop Below $100

Jakarta, Pintu News – After registering a strong rally early in the fourth quarter, Solana prices suddenly plummeted sharply, losing nearly 20% of its value in just a few trading sessions. This drastic drop also dragged the overall market sentiment into uncertainty.

Although on-chain data still shows Solana’s ecosystem activity remains solid, technical analysts warn that the current correction phase may not be complete. If key support levels fail to hold, SOL risks dropping through the psychological $100 level.

Solana’s Analysis: Correction Risk Still Lurks Despite Temporary Support

Based on data from CoinGecko, as of November 5, 2025, Solana was trading at around $156, having previously touched a short-term low of $148. Since the beginning of November, the market value of SOL has dropped by almost 20%.

The weekly chart shows that the SOL price is currently around the long-term uptrend line that has been forming since 2023. This structure has repeatedly become a “savior” for Solana’s intermediate uptrend.

However, as highlighted by a trader on platform X, if this long-term trend line is broken to the downside, SOL could potentially experience a further 30-40% drop. This drop could drag the SOL price below the psychological $100 level, risking triggering another wave of panic selling.

You can literally see story on that $SOL

Months of clean higher lows, now hanging right on edge of the trendline that is held since 2023.

If this breaks, trust me there’s no magic it’s a 30–40% slide straight into next liquidity zone.
And yet, people are still trying to buy the… pic.twitter.com/JkZoPxrvZH
— Henry (@LordOfAlts) November 4, 2025

“If this line is broken, believe me, there is no miracle. The price can immediately drop 30-40% to the next liquidity zone. But people still buy when the price drops, as if it’s still 2021. Sometimes charts are more honest than narratives,” the analyst said.

Another weekly analysis mentions that the $122 level is still a high-risk but potentially high-yield entry point, while the $200 level is considered an important resistance that needs to be broken to confirm the end of the downtrend since mid-2024.

SOL/USD Liquidity Heatmap Breaks $180 Support Zone

A separate post shared the liquidity heatmap for the SOL/USD pair, which shows that the price has recently broken the support zone at $180, draining the liquidity cluster on the downside.

$SOL weekly range looks very nice.

"If" Solana retests the $122 rangelow, it would be a huge buy/long opportunity.

For investors it's a prefect DCA-level, for trading purposes it could result in a very high RR trade.

Weekly dropoff at ~$200, gaining that breaks the downtrend. pic.twitter.com/K8EZ5L7Jrn
— Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) November 4, 2025

Meanwhile, a dense liquidity cluster is now forming in the $200-$220 area. Analysts warn against being overly optimistic about a potential bullish reversal in the near term.

He also concurs with the general view that the long-term recovery of altcoins, including Solana, largely depends on Bitcoin’s ability to form a strong price foundation. In his opinion, the SOL price rebound may be delayed until BTC stabilizes above the important support level of around $95,000.

“There is a big liquidity cluster on the upside, but let’s not get too excited just yet. Until Bitcoin really forms a solid price floor, Solana will continue to weaken,” he added.

$SOL has taken out nearly all the downside liquidity.

Some big liquidity clusters have emerged to the upside, but don't get too excited.

Until Bitcoin decides to form a bottom, Solana will go down. pic.twitter.com/op2Yoj2Tq9
— Ted (@TedPillows) November 4, 2025

Solana’s price structure looks fragile below $150. A deeper retest to the $120 area – even $100 – remains possible unless Bitcoin manages to find a stable point.

On-Chain Strength Remains Strong, but Short-Term Sentiment Still Vulnerable

In contrast to the price correction that occurred, the on-chain indicator shows a much more resilient picture for Solana.

According to Vibhu, the Solana network generates $8.5 million in blockspace value per week, records $29 billion in DEX volume (surpassing Ethereum), processes 543 million transactions, and maintains 15.5 million active addresses – more than any other blockchain. These numbers debunk the “Solana is dead” narrative circulating on social media.

SoLaNa Is DeAd 🤡

Except…

– Solana was #1 in real economic value (what people pay to access blockspace): $8.5 million in the past week
– $29 billion in weekly spot DEX volume, higher than the entire "Ethereum ecosystem"
– 540 million weekly transactions, 3x more than ALL… pic.twitter.com/rmmJNCDp7D
— vibhu (@vibhu) November 4, 2025

At the same time, Solana continues to attract stablecoin fund inflows, even setting a new record high foradjusted stablecoin volume last October – confirming the network’s increasing role in DeFi transaction settlements.

However, the sharp price drop had a major impact on institutional portfolios. Forward Industries, Inc (Nasdaq: FORD) reportedly holds 6.82 million SOLs, which were purchased at an average price of $232. Currently, the position has an unrealized loss of about 24%, or about $382 million.

Solana is showing its resilience as a blockchain with real-world adoption and high network utilization rates. While fundamentals remain solid, Solana’s short-term outlook is still highly dependent on Bitcoin’s next move. A sustained recovery could only happen if BTC rallies back above its key support zone.

For now, maintaining the $150-$160 price range is crucial to prevent further damage to the price structure, which could trigger technical and psychological selling pressure.

Despite the market downturn, Solana’s official account on platform X remains optimistic, reminding the community that bear markets are often the birthplace of the strongest projects.

"Don't be afraid of red candles. Red candles make community.

Don't be afraid of FUD. FUD creates community.

Don't be afraid of bear markets. The best successes come out of bear markets."

–@LucaNetz shares some words of advice for founders pic.twitter.com/jhJLwZqyFG
— Solana (@solana) November 5, 2025

“Don’t be afraid of the red candle. Red candles form communities. Don’t be afraid of FUD. FUD strengthens the community. Don’t be afraid of bear markets. The greatest successes are often born from bear markets,” Solana’s official account reads.

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