Bitcoin Hash Rate Drops 4% amid Miner Pressure, What’s Next for BTC?

Jakarta, Pintu News – In the past 30 days, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network has dropped by about 4%, marking the sharpest decline in almost two years.

At the same time, the increasing price volatility and declining value of BTC indicate growing pressure among miners, along with shrinking profit margins.

However, according to investment management firm VanEck, this phase of miner capitulation could signal that the Bitcoin price may have bottomed.

Bitcoin mining computing power drops due to price weakness

The mid-December 2025 edition of VanEck’s Bitcoin ChainCheck report highlighted that the 4% drop in network computing power (hash rate) was the largest since April 2024. This contraction comes amid a difficult month for Bitcoin, where the price fell by around 9%.

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In addition, market volatility increased sharply, with 30-day realized volatility jumping above 45%, the highest level since April 2025.

“We typically expect hash rates to decline during large drops in Bitcoin price,” wrote VanEck’s Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush.

In addition to price pressure, Bitcoin’s hash rate has also been affected by developments in China. Last week, a report from BeInCrypto said that around 400,000 mining machines in Xinjiang province had to be forcibly shut down.

The shutdown removed about 1.3 gigawatts of energy capacity, having a major impact on the Bitcoin network. As a result, computing power from China dropped by about 100 exahash per second in just 24 hours.

“This is most likely due to a shift in power supply to meet demand from the AI sector, and could lead to the removal of up to 10% of the Bitcoin network’s total computing power,” VanEck analysts said.

Pressure on Miners’ Economy

In addition to network disruptions, miners’ economic conditions have also worsened due to the weakening Bitcoin price.

According to VanEck, the breakeven electricity price for a 2022 Bitmain S19 XP machine dropped from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 in mid-December 2025, a decrease of about 36%.

Sigel and Bush added:

“Despite the recent dramatic decline in miner profitability, many have continued mining activities due to their belief in the future of Bitcoin. To support the long-term strength of the Bitcoin network hash rate, we estimate that up to 13 countries are now engaged in mining activities with support from their national governments.”

Historical Data Hints at Potential Bullish Reversal

Although the pressure on the Bitcoin network is still being felt, VanEck notes that a decrease in the hash rate can actually be a bullish signal from the contrarian side.

Based on data since 2014, the report found that Bitcoin’s forward returns tend to be stronger when the network’s hash rate is declining.

In periods when the hash rate fell over the past 30 days, BTC returns in the next 90 days were positive around 65% of the time, compared to 54% in periods when the hash rate increased.

In addition, the average 180-day forward return is also slightly higher when the hash rate decreases, at around 20.5%, compared to 20.2% when the hash rate increases – this pattern even remains consistent over the long term.

“Of the 346 days since 2014 where 90-day hash rate growth was negative, BTC returns in the next 180 days were positive 77% of the time, with an average gain of +72%. Outside of that period, 180-day returns were positive only about 61% of the time, with an average gain of +48%,” VanEck analysts said.

Technical Patterns Support Price Basis Formation

In terms of technical analysis, a number of market observers have also started to highlight the potential signals of bottom formation.

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Market analysts such as Ted Pillows identified a bullish divergence on the 3-day chart (3D bullish divergence) – a pattern that also appeared at the last two moments when Bitcoin formed a market low.

“The 3D bullish divergence on BTC has now been confirmed. In its two previous appearances, Bitcoin formed a bottom after this signal appeared,” Pillows explained.

However, whether Bitcoin will actually make a comeback is still uncertain. For now, market pressure is still limiting price movements. Based on BeInCrypto Markets data, Bitcoin is trading at $88,066, down about 1.01% in the last 24 hours.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin Hash Rate Falls 4% Amid Miner Stress: What Does It Mean for the Price. Accessed on December 24, 2025