Will Nvidia’s Share Price Hit $300 by 2026? 2 Big Reasons It Just Might

Updated

December 29, 2025

Gambar Will Nvidia’s Share Price Hit $300 by 2026? 2 Big Reasons It Just Might

Jakarta, Pintu News – Nvidia shares are among the most closely watched on Wall Street, as investors examine both short-term drivers and long-term structural changes in the AI hardware market.

Ahead of 2026, there is an important long-term resistance level around $300, while in the short-term, the stock faces resistance around $200. In the last trading session, NVDA stock closed at $190.53, up more than 1%, and has risen 38% since the beginning of the year.

Based on fundamental factors, the $300 level looks realistic by 2026, provided the company is able to maintain its dominance in the AI sector. In this regard, the Finbold website has identified several key reasons that it believes could push the American semiconductor giant to reach a record price of $300 by 2026.

Groq deal

nvidia groq collaboration — Source: Entrepreneur Loop

The first major trigger was Nvidia’s strategic license agreement with AI chipmaker Groq, which was positively received by Wall Street. In late December, Nvidia signed a non-exclusive license deal worth up to $20 billion, which includes the integration of Groq’s proprietary inference technology and the hiring of key personnel from the company.

This move aims to incorporate deterministic real-time language processing capabilities into Nvidia’s broader AI ecosystem, while addressing the needs of the growing AI market-particularly beyond traditional GPU training workloads.

By enhancing its inferencing capabilities, Nvidia strengthens its appeal to hyperscalers and enterprise-level AI customers, especially as demand for training and inference infrastructure continues to rise.

The positive market response and renewed optimism from analysts regarding the expansion of Nvidia’s AI products suggest that this deal could be an important factor in supporting Nvidia’s growth towards 2026.

Product Roadmap

The second driving factor is Nvidia’s aggressive product roadmap for 2026, particularly the launch of its next-generation microarchitecture named Rubin. Rubin is designed to deliver significant performance improvements through the use of advanced HBM4 memory and higher processing efficiency-a huge leap from the current Blackwell-based platform.

Industry projections suggest that Rubin has the potential to deliver a large increase in throughput, which could strengthen Nvidia’s competitive position in the AI accelerator market and help the company secure a larger share of the global AI infrastructure market.

It is expected that Rubin-based systems will be in high demand, while the widespread adoption of the Blackwell series by 2025 will also strengthen Nvidia’s position in the data center and edge computing market until 2026.

Risks Faced by Nvidia

Despite having various growth drivers, Nvidia’s journey to a $300 share price is also fraught with risks. One of the most significant is the US-imposed export and licensing restrictions on advanced chips to China. These policies are already causing inventory burdens and could further restrict Nvidia’s access to one of the world’s largest technology markets.

If these restrictions continue or expand, it could significantly reduce Nvidia’s market potential and hold back its revenue growth rate.

Another risk is the growing competition from hyperscalers and custom silicon AI chip initiatives. Major tech companies are now investing in developing their own AI chips, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s pricing power or even erode its market share, especially if alternative solutions prove to be capable or more cost-efficient.

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