Motley Fool Analyst Says Crypto Winter Could Return in 2026

Updated

January 2, 2026

Gambar Motley Fool Analyst Says Crypto Winter Could Return in 2026

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin closed out 2025 with its first annual loss since 2022, and some analysts are warning that this rough patch may not be over.

With key drivers already exhausted and macroeconomic pressures mounting, the crypto market is expected to face another challenging year ahead.

Sean Williams of the Motley Fool warns that crypto winter could return in 2026, following a pattern of big drops occurring every four years, as seen in 2018 and 2022.

Winter could drag XRP price down to $1

Williams highlighted that key events such as the Bitcoin halving, Trump’s re-election, and the passage of the Genius Act are now a “thing of the past”, so investors no longer have any real triggers to keep their faith.

“Bitcoin is now down more than 30% from its 52-week high,” Williams said. “The main problem for the crypto market right now is that there are no big catalysts for the new year.”

He also predicts that the Bitcoin treasury strategy trend-pioneered by Michael Saylor through his firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)-will turn out to be “one of Wall Street’s biggest failures in 2026.”

According to him, most of the companies that emulate this strategy have not proven successful and are actually losing money, and have limited purchasing power to support Bitcoin demand.

“Moreover, companies that adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies tend to trade at very high multiples of their digital net asset value,” Williams wrote.

“Paying premiums of tens to hundreds of percent compared to net asset value makes no sense, especially now that there are spot Bitcoin ETFs that make it easy to invest directly.”

Regarding XRP, Williams expressed a very pessimistic view by predicting a price drop all the way back to $1. He argued that all the positive catalysts – Trump’s election, the settlement of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit, and the approval of the spot ETF – are already fully accounted for in the current price.

He also highlighted that XRP is only used by about 300 financial institutions, compared to the more than 11,000 institutions that use SWIFT for cross-border remittances.

However, Williams still sees one positive opportunity: a possible “big wave of spot crypto ETF approvals” in 2026. With 125 crypto ETFs still awaiting regulatory approval as of mid-December, he foresees approvals for projects like Avalanche , Cardano , Polkadot , and others-which could possibly see certain altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

2025 Recap: Macro Pressures Drive Bitcoin’s First Annual Loss

The difficulties Bitcoin experienced throughout 2025 highlight the uncertainty it will face in the new year. Over the course of the year, Bitcoin’s price fell more than 6%, ending the year at $87,474-its first annual loss since 2022.

The year actually opened strongly, as Bitcoin surged thanks to Trump’s election victory, even touching an all-time high above $126,000 in early October.

However, on October 10, crypto markets plummeted after Trump announced new tariffs on imports from China and threatened export restrictions for critical software. This triggered more than $19 billion worth of liquidations-the largest in crypto history.

Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s movements during 2025 increasingly reflect stock market sentiment, as traditional retail and institutional investors move into cryptocurrencies. This correlation is expected to grow stronger in 2026, with crypto increasingly tied to factors affecting stocks and other risky assets, such as changes in monetary policy and concerns over high valuations of AI-based stocks.

On the regulatory front, the crypto industry has had some big wins under the Trump administration. These include the dismissal of the Biden-era SEC lawsuit against Coinbase and Binance, as well as the passage of the Genius Act which established federal rules for stablecoins.

However, legislation related to market structure and SEC rule exemptions-needed to resolve the industry’s core issues-is still pending, and this could dampen the positive euphoria among market participants.

An Optimistic View: The Other Side of the Market

Not everyone agrees with this pessimistic view of the crypto market. Some analysts believe that 2026 will be the start of the bull run and altcoin season that failed to materialize in 2025.

They highlighted key catalysts such as a pro-crypto US administration, growing institutional adoption, the growth of stablecoins, and possible interest rate cuts.

Analysts also predict that blockchain technology will be applied in more sectors throughout 2026, opening up new opportunities for the crypto ecosystem to grow and thrive.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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