5 Bitcoin Facts and the 4-Year Cycle in the Crypto Market

Jakarta, Pintu News – A major debate has emerged in the crypto market after several analysts stated that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which has been used as a key indicator in raising and lowering the price, is losing its relevance.

This cycle used to be triggered by the Bitcoin halving mechanism, but changes in market structure and the dominance of institutional capital have significantly changed the dynamics of BTC price movements. These statements and discussions were recorded in a recent report on the macro reality of the Bitcoin market and other digital assets.

1. Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Looks to Disappear

For over a decade, many traders and investors looked to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle as a guide – a price rally following each halving and then ending with a major correction. However, recent news reports note that Bitcoin’s price peak in 2025 has collapsed from around US$126,000 and sparked questions as to whether the cycle itself still holds true.

This phenomenon is referred to as the death of the four-year cycle as the once consistent boom-bust pattern is no longer clearly visible. Price declines and changes in market structure make cycle predictions less reliable.

Also Read: Ethereum (ETH) Keeps Going, Is 2026 the Right Time to Buy?

2. Stronger Institutional Market Role

Some analysts claim that the force behind the declining relevance of the four-year cycle is the growth of institutional capital in the market. Big money from Bitcoin spot ETFs and pension funds are now the main force flowing into digital assets, so the once heavily retail-driven pattern is changing.

This also changes the way BTC prices move structurally: it’s no longer just a response to the halving, but also a response to large capital flows in and out of the global market.

3. The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Price Direction

In addition to institutional capital, macro factors such as interest rate policy, global liquidity and world economic conditions are now influencing the price of Bitcoin and other crypto assets more than just the four-year cycle. Analysts point out that BTC is now more correlated with macro assets such as stock markets and global indices.

For example, after the last halving, BTC’s price increase of around 41.2% was only a fraction of the increase in the previous cycle. This shows that the supply shock effect of the halving is now weaker, while macro factors play a bigger role.

4. Longer or Changing Cycles Instead of Dying

While there is a lot of talk about the “death” of the four-year cycle, some analysts believe it is not completely gone, but is changing shape. Cycles could be longer or tied to global liquidity waves rather than just halving.

This argument emphasizes that the Bitcoin market has matured: volatility is now more moderate and more influenced by institutional inputs and global monetary policy, which makes old cyclical patterns less likely to emerge.

5. Impact on Crypto Traders and Investors

This change in cycle has implications for anyone trading or owning Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The less sharp rally after the halving requires market participants to look at additional indicators besides the traditional four-year cycle.

Traders also need to pay attention to macro factors and large capital flows, as these are now important signals in determining medium to long-term market momentum. This broadens the scope of analysis from just historical patterns to a more holistic approach to global economic conditions.

Also Read: New Strategy in the Crypto World: 680,000 BTC Acquisition by Strategy!

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference
– Bitcoin News. The Death of the 4-Year Cycle:Experts on Bitcoin’s New Macro Reality. Accessed January 8, 2026.