Gold vs. Bitcoin: Historical Patterns Hint at a Possible Capital Rotation Toward Crypto Assets

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin briefly traded at around $75,000, reducing weekly losses to more than 14%. Analysts assessed macroeconomic trends and shifting capital flows, along with gold prices dropping from the previous week’s record highs.

Having previously dropped from a high near $88,000, Bitcoin is now testing the $75,000 level as an important support zone amid increasing volatility in global markets, including commodities, stocks, and digital assets.

Tom Lee: Bitcoin’s Low Point Reached, “Fantastic Buying Opportunity”

On Monday (2/2), Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told CNBC that Bitcoin may be nearing its bottom. He said that stronger fundamentals could trigger a price recovery. His team previously projected the price of Bitcoin to reach $77,000 and Ethereum $2,400 by November 2025.

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With those levels now starting to be realized over the weekend, Lee suggests that the selling pressure may start to ease and a recovery could be on the horizon. He calls the current price a “fantastic buying opportunity.”

Bull Theory: Capital Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin Like 2020

On the other hand, a market analyst named Bull Theory highlighted the similarities between the current market conditions and the 2020 cycle, specifically in the relationship between gold and Bitcoin.

In August 2020, the price of gold peaked at around $2,075 before dropping around 9-10% in the following weeks. At that time, Bitcoin went down, but then turned up. From September 2020 to April 2021, Bitcoin price surged by more than 500%, while gold showed a weaker performance.

Bull Theory notes that gold is currently outperforming Bitcoin again on a relative basis. Gold has gained more than 20% since the beginning of the year, while Bitcoin is lagging after a correction. According to Bull Theory, periods like this are historically often followed by capital rotation into higher-risk assets, although the exact timing is difficult to predict.

He also referred to macroeconomic data, such as the ISM Manufacturing Index, which has recently been above the 50 mark – a signal of economic expansion. These conditions have previously often gone hand in hand with the strong performance of risky assets such as Bitcoin.

Maurizio Pedrazzoli: Valuing Bitcoin in Gold, Not Dollars

In a podcast, analyst from the channel Maurizio Pedrazzoli discussed Bitcoin’s valuation against gold instead of the US dollar. Based on the BTC to gold ratio chart, Bitcoin is currently trading at levels last seen over a year ago.

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Analysts note that Bitcoin’s value against gold has fallen by about 50-60% from the peak of the previous cycle, placing it at the lower end of the range historically. They note that similar conditions in the past usually coincided with a price stabilization phase, not a rapid reversal.

They also highlighted that the recent surge in gold prices has been steep in the long term. Historically, too sharp a rise in commodity prices tends to be followed by a correction, which in turn can change relative valuations between asset classes.

ETF Outflows and Macro Factors Remain Key Determinants

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded sustained net outflows in recent weeks, with some trading sessions recording hundreds of millions of dollars in withdrawals. This data reflects portfolio adjustments amid rising yields and strength in traditional safe haven assets.

Analysts emphasize that fund flows from ETFs should be viewed in conjunction with broader macroeconomic indicators, such as interest rate expectations, US dollar strength and commodity performance.

Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether capital stays in defensive assets or starts to shift back into riskier assets. Gold price developments, macroeconomic data, and the direction of investor fund flows are expected to play a key role in the coming months.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• CoinEdition. Gold vs. Bitcoin: Historical Rotation Suggests Capital Could Shift to Crypto. Accessed on February 5, 2026