Nvidia Stock Outlook: AI Surge Could Push NVDA’s Valuation to $5 Trillion?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Nvidia remains the “crown jewel” of the AI revolution, with a number of recent analyst recommendation hikes projecting a valuation of up to $5 trillion by the end of 2026 as GPU demand explodes.

The share price is currently hovering around $185 after the post earnings turmoil, but the price target in the $300-$500 range indicates a potential upside of around 60-170%, driven by Blackwell’s production ramp-up and Rubin’s platform hype dominating “AI stocks” searches on Google Trends.

Surge in AI demand cements Nvidia’s dominance

Nvidia controls more than 90% of the AI training accelerator market with its H100/Blackwell line and CUDA software ecosystem excellence, leaving competitors scrambling to catch up.

Read also: Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Analysis: Time to Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2026?

Some key analyst calls: Morgan Stanley set an aggressive price target of $280 (up about 51% from current levels), highlighting a vision of an “AI factory” where data centers evolve into sovereign computing hubs; while Goldman Sachs set a target of $250 (about +35%), pointing to Q4 performance that exceeded expectations and a revenue projection of $39 billion amid a capex boom of hyperscalers like AWS and Azure.

Data Center segment revenue, which now accounts for 87% of the total, jumped 122% in the last quarter thanks to commitments of more than $200 billion from tech giants. The automotive (self-driving) and Omniverse segments also added to the diversification of revenue sources.

CEO Jensen Huang projects AI infrastructure spending will reach $1 trillion per year, putting Nvidia on a path of potential cumulative sales of about $500 billion through 2030.

Path to $5 Trillion Valuation: Projections and Key Drivers

Wall Street estimates Nvidia’s fair price at around $265 (potential upside of around 43%), but more optimistic parties such as Evercore ISI ($352 target) project that Nvidia could return to a valuation of $5 trillion assuming a price-to-earnings forward of 40x and earnings growth of 79%.

Key catalysts include AI deals with sovereign funds in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Tesla’s move to rely on Nvidia chips instead of Dojo, and NIM’s software line which has the potential to reach US$1 billion Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for inference optimization.

While export restrictions to China cut around $8 billion in potential revenue, factories in the US and Taiwan kept supply flowing. A cash pile of $43 billion supports the buyback program, while the position of no net debt makes the valuation at 55x multiple seem “paltry” when compared to AI’s Total Addressable Market (TAM) estimated at $4 trillion.

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Navigating Risks Amid AI Gold Rush

The export ban and custom chip development by Meta/Google are real risks, but the “lock-in” effect on the CUDA ecosystem-similar to the dependency on the App Store on the iPhone-makes customer defection very difficult.

The already high valuation opens up room for correction, but Jensen Huang dismisses bubble concerns: “AI is 10x productivity.” February earnings are seen as the next trigger for volatility.

Nvidia’s ecosystem-from chips to cloud services-makes it a key proxy for global AI trends. With the surge in “AI” searches worldwide, a $5 trillion valuation feels more like an inevitability than an ambition.

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Reference:

• Coinpaper. NVDA Stock Forecast: AI Surge Could Push Value to $5 Trillion. Accessed on February 10, 2026