5 Impacts of US Inflation Data This Week on Bitcoin & Crypto

Jakarta, Pintu News – Investments in Bitcoin and various crypto assets are now back in the market’s main focus ahead of the pending release of the United States (US) inflation data for January. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to provide important signals regarding the policy direction of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and investors’ risk appetite for risky assets such as crypto. The price movements of Bitcoin and altcoins seem to be increasingly tied to global interest rate expectations and the current volatile macroeconomic conditions.

1. US CPI Data is a Reference for Interest Rate Policy

US CPI inflation data to be released is expected to show a decline from December to around 2.5% year-over-year, after delays due to the US government shutdown. This leaves the market waiting for signals on whether the Fed will delay or accelerate interest rate cuts.

A more-than-expected decline in inflation will usually weaken the pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high. This could attract investors back to risk assets, including crypto. Conversely, still strong inflation could prolong the “higher for longer” regime and suppress risk appetite.

Most markets have now repriced their rate cut projections, making CPI a more important indicator than labor data in determining market direction.

Read More: Silver Price Projections 2026 Based on J.P. Morgan Outlook

2. Bitcoin Consolidates Amid Inflation Expectations

Bitcoin showed a consolidation pattern after strong labor data pushed the probability of a rate cut downward. The rise in bond yields decreased risk appetite, which increased selling pressure on digital assets.

In this context, Bitcoin is still seen as a risky asset, so its movements are very sensitive to developments in CPI data. The potential downside or upside will largely depend on how close the inflation results are to market expectations.

Current market sentiment reflects the uncertainty between maintaining a conservative position or returning to risk-taking as macro data eases.

3. Impact on Altcoin Rates & Global Crypto Sentiment

Besides Bitcoin, major altcoins such as Ethereum and other assets are expected to move in line with macro sentiment. In previous inflation events, crypto had recorded mixed price responses depending on the size of the CPI data and interest rate expectations.

This response shows that crypto in general is still not completely independent from traditional monetary factors. Digital assets are still reacting to the chance of interest rates falling which could increase overall market liquidity.

If CPI shows price weakness more than expected, crypto will most likely see a brief technical rally although volatility remains high. Conversely, inflation pushing the risk of high interest rates will keep risk assets depressed.

4. Risk of Changes in Market Expectations

Market expectations for interest rates have now been influenced by strong labor data and a likely moderate CPI. This makes the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting increasingly compressed to a more distant time.

FedWatch Tool estimates that it is likely that the Fed will keep interest rates at a range of 3.50%-3.75% in the near future. This becomes a drag on risky assets such as crypto if expectations of a rate cut are not met.

Short-term market volatility becomes greater, especially ahead of CPI announcements, as investors try to adjust their portfolios based on monetary policy probabilities.

5. Investor Strategy Ahead of CPI

Short-term investors will likely continue to monitor the CPI very carefully, as the figures coming out could trigger sharp price movements in crypto. If the inflation figures are lower than expected, then the risk-on rate could increase and bring capital flows back into Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Conversely, higher-than-expected data could pressure risk assets further and create demand for safe haven assets like gold again. Under these conditions, a more defensive trading position is seen as reasonable for the short term.

In the medium term, investment decisions will depend on how the Fed interprets inflation and employment trends against the priorities of growth and price stability.

Also Read: 3 Scenarios of Martabe Gold Mine & Its Impact on Crypto: Price Could Reach Rp84 Million per Ounce?

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Akash Girimath/Decrypt. What to Expect for Bitcoin and Crypto Ahead of This Week’s Inflation Data. Accessed February 13, 2026.