Bitcoin’s Slide to $64,000 Signals a Deeper Descent into Stage 4 of the Bear Market

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin has now entered what analyst Doctor Profit calls Stage 4 of a six-phase bear market cycle. He explains that this structure is indicative of recurring liquidity mechanics, leveraged positioning, and human behavior under stress.

The framework was developed following the Bitcoin price plummeting from a high of $125,000 to the $60,000 range in just a few weeks. So, how will Bitcoin price move today?

Bitcoin Price Drops 4.73% in 24 Hours

Bitcoin took a notable hit on February 23, 2026, retreating to $64,979—approximately IDR 1,096,015,764. This represents a 4.73% slide over the last 24 hours, as the digital asset navigated a volatile window between an intraday high of IDR 1,150,941,528 and a low of IDR 1,092,064,012.

Despite the price contraction, market activity surged; trading volume jumped 58% to hit IDR 504.54 trillion, maintaining Bitcoin’s market capitalization at roughly IDR 21,767 trillion.

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Bitcoin is in Stage 4 of the Bear Market

According to Doctor Profit, Stage 1 occurred in the range of $115,000 to $125,000, where euphoria-driven buying dominated the market. He explains that the prolonged sideways price movement at the time masked the use of excessive leverage andextreme greed.

In particular, newcomers believe that risk has disappeared as bullish predictions increase.

However, Stage 2 began as soon as Bitcoin lost the psychological level of $100,000. The analyst described the price breakout as rapid and measured. He highlighted the crash on October 10, which triggered the largest liquidation action in crypto history in just a matter of hours.

Phase 3 followed with what he calls the most brutal phase. Bitcoin’s price went into freefall from $97,000 in January to $60,000 in February-a 50% drop in just 30 days. He notes that almost half of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization evaporated during that period.

This phase is characterized by long sideways movements within a defined price range. Doctor Profit says that this period is more about “draining the energy” of market participants rather than surprising them.

Anticipate Price Bounce

Furthermore, he called it a selling zone for weak-hands (investors who panic easily). On-chain data, he added, showed an increase in capitulation from short-term holders in recent days.

He expects thebreakdown of the current price range to occur in the next few months rather than weeks. For now, he has placedbuy orders in the range of $57,000 to $60,000 in anticipation of a short-term price bounce.

However, he maintains a broader downside target for the longer term.

Zone $35,000 to $45,000 Identified as Final Capitulation

Doctor Profit initially projected abottom in the range of $50,000 to $60,000 when BTC prices were at $120,000. However, in January, he revised the range to $40,000 to $50,000.

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Taking into account the current macro data as well as the obvious pressure on the liquidity market, he now identifies the $35,000 to $45,000 level as theultimate bottom scenario.

He labeled Stage 5 as the phase of total fear and capitulation. Bitcoin, he notes, could plummet to 50% or 70% of itsall-time high before panic reaches its peak. After that, Stage 6 will combine volatility with structural stabilization.

He states that the whales (large investors) made massive accumulations during this period. Meanwhile, retail traders often get caught waiting for price targets that are so extreme that they end up missing opportunities at the bottom.

Analysts Highlight Liquidation Risk and Key Levels

Crypto analyst Tice points to historical data of BTC pricecrashes that have reached 84%, 77%, and 70%. However, he emphasized that it’s the structural trends, not just percentage numbers, that define a cycle.

He added that institutions continue to build their exposure and the regulatory framework continues to progress. Moreover, he noted the tightening of long-term supply despite market volatility.

Meanwhile, Captain Faibik stated that Bitcoin bulls are still trying to defend the weekly EMA200 level at around $68,000. He anticipates a potential price bounce towards $80,000 from this level.

On the other hand, analyst Ted presented crucial liquidation data. He revealed that $9.37 billion worth of short positions would be liquidated if Bitcoin’s price increased by 20%. Conversely, a 20% drop in price would liquidate $2.24 billion worth of long positions.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coingape. Expert Says Bitcoin Now in ‘Stage 4’ Bear Market Phase, Warns BTC May Hit 35K to 45K Zone. Accessed on February 23, 2026