Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction March 2026: Surge or Freefall?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Entering March 2026, the price of Bitcoin is still showing no signs of significant recovery after experiencing heavy selling pressure since October 2025. February’s nearly 15% drop adds to a string of five consecutive months that Bitcoin (BTC) has closed in the red.

However, behind the negative sentiment, some on-chain data and institutional movements are starting to show a potential change in direction. Here’s a full review of Bitcoin (BTC) price dynamics and predictions for its movement through March 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) Still Moves in Line with the Stock Market

One of the main factors influencing the current price of Bitcoin (BTC) is the ever-increasing correlation with the United States stock market. As of March 1, 2026, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 stood at 0.55, up from 0.50 in October 2025.

This indicates that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements are still heavily influenced by stock market sentiment, reducing its appeal as a hedge asset amid economic uncertainty. Additional pressure comes from new global tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration as well as potential military escalation between the United States and Iran.

On the other hand, gold and silver prices have seen significant gains, while Bitcoin (BTC) is still under pressure. If geopolitical tensions ease, it is possible that risk sentiment will improve again and encourage capital rotation into Bitcoin (BTC) as an investment alternative.

However, this largely depends on whether the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market can be broken. Analysts think that as long as this correlation remains high, Bitcoin (BTC) remains vulnerable to external pressures from global financial markets.

Also read: 5 US Economic Data That Could Move Bitcoin (BTC) This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) ETF outflows begin to subside, signaling change?

Amid macroeconomic pressures, data from spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs shows an interesting trend shift. Over the past four months, there have been net outflows from the Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, but the value has continued to decline dramatically.

In November 2025, outflows reached $3,480,000,000, then dropped to $1,090,000,000 in December, $1,610,000,000 in January, and only $206,520,000 in February 2026. This 94% decline from peak outflows indicates that selling pressure from institutions is starting to ease.

Some experts believe that the outflows from ETFs are more due to position adjustments and deleveraging, rather than institutions completely abandoning Bitcoin (BTC). In fact, about 94% of the total holdings of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have remained despite the panic in the retail market.

This shows institutional investors’ long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s (BTC) prospects. If market volatility decreases and macroeconomic direction becomes clearer, fund flows into Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs are expected to be positive again.

Also read: Gold-Based Crypto Price Today, Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Selling Pressure Begins to Exhaust, Whales Begin to Accumulate

Aside from the ETF side, on-chain data also shows that selling pressure from long-term holders and miners of Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to decrease dramatically. Wallets that have held Bitcoin (BTC) for more than 365 days showed an 87% decrease in selling activity through February 2026.

Meanwhile, miners who usually sell Bitcoin (BTC) to cover operational costs have also started to reduce sales, from a peak of -4,718 BTC on February 8 to just -837 BTC on March 1. This decline indicates that the phase of heavy capitulation is likely behind us.

On the other hand, large wallets or whales holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC started to add to their holdings, especially when Bitcoin (BTC) price rebounded 4.06% in mid-February. Wallets with holdings of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC also started accumulating since February 25.

One of the main reasons for this accumulation is Bitcoin’s (BTC) price position just below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67,100. If the price is able to break the 50-day SMA at $77,200 and the psychological level of $80,000, the potential for a further rally is wide open.

Conclusion

Overall, March 2026 is predicted to be a decisive month for Bitcoin (BTC) price movement. The weakening selling pressure, accumulation from large wallets, and potential capital rotation from other assets are the main catalysts that can push prices in a positive direction. However, as long as the correlation with the stock market remains high and the bear flag structure has not been confirmed broken, downside risks remain looming. The support level at $62,300 and resistance at $79,000 will be key to the direction of Bitcoin (BTC) price movement throughout this month.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin Price Prediction March 2026: Expert Forecasts and Analysis. Accessed on March 7, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by AI