BTC rises Rp33.8 million a day, gold falls 3.6%, what’s going on?
Jakarta, Pintu News – The Iran conflict has again shaken global markets and forced investors to reassess their preferred “safe” assets. Instead of gold, fund flows appear to be more responsive to crypto and cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin . This pattern begs the question: why do digital assets gain when stocks and precious metals lose ground?
1. Bitcoin (BTC) Strengthens as US Exchanges Weaken
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to $66,300 or around Rp1,120,934,100, then recovered and traded around $68,783 or around Rp1,162,914,181. This movement translates to an increase of about $2,000 or about Rp33,814,000 in the US trading period. Intraday gains like this are often read by the market as a response to a surge in uncertainty, rather than simply a technical rally.
On the other hand, US stock indices corrected and reinforced the “risk-off” narrative in equities. As the Nasdaq fell around 1% and other major indices fell, some investors chose to move exposure from stocks to liquid assets that can be traded 24/7. This shift helped lift interest in crypto and cryptocurrencies, although it did not automatically mean that market risks disappeared.
2. Gold and Silver Fall Sharply, Safe Haven is Not Always the Same
Gold, which is usually referred to as a safe haven, fell around 3.6% to $5,119/oz or around IDR86,546,933. Silver fell more deeply by about 6.2% to $83/oz or about Rp1,403,281. This divergence in direction shows that the “safe haven” label is contextual, especially when markets weigh the US dollar, yields, and liquidity needs.
For easy comparison, here is a summary of the key figures (exchange rate 1 USD = IDR 16,907).
- Bitcoin (BTC): from $66,300 (Rp1,120,934,100) to $68,783 (Rp1,162,914,181)
- Gold: $5,119/oz (IDR86,546,933), down about 3.6%
- Silver: $83/oz (Rp1,403,281), down about 6.2%
3. Energy Prices and Inflation Narratives Change Investor Preferences
The Iranian conflict also raised the market’s sensitivity to energy, as supply risks often quickly feed into prices. Brent is said to have risen about 4.5% to $81/barrel or about Rp1,369,467. Such a rise in energy raises inflation concerns, which in turn affects interest rate expectations.
When the market sees inflation as potentially more “sticky”, interest rate-sensitive assets are volatile. Stocks, bonds and precious metals can be pressured due to adjustments in real return expectations. Within this framework, some market participants see crypto and cryptocurrencies as a short-term diversification alternative, although volatility remains high.
4. Fed Expectations Limit Rate Cut Opportunities
Rising energy and geopolitical uncertainty may make central banks more cautious. The mentioned market probability data shows the chance of a quarter-point rate cut is only about 2.6%. If the “rates higher for longer” scenario strengthens, non-yielding gold could become less attractive relative to interest-bearing instruments.
At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) can benefit from two different mechanisms: alternative hedging narratives and risk rotation flows from equities. However, these two mechanisms are not always stable as crypto and cryptocurrency sentiment can change quickly when volatility rises. As such, BTC rallies in episodes like these still need to be read as a market reaction, not a certainty of a new trend.
5. Prediction market portrays high uncertainty
The quoted prediction platform depicts split expectations. The chance of Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $55, 000 was cited as 58%, while the chance of it heading to $84 , 000 was cited as 42%. This figure confirms that a short-term rally is possible even as the big sentiment still leans cautious.
In terms of geopolitics, the probability of a ceasefire before April is said to be 45%, while the chance of the Iranian regime falling before October is 38%. Uncertainty like this usually keeps volatility across assets high, including in crypto and cryptocurrencies. The implication is that risk management becomes more important than guessing one single scenario.
6. What It Means for Those of You Who Monitor Crypto and Traditional Assets
This episode signals that “safe assets” are not always synonymous with gold, especially when the dollar, energy, and interest rates move together. Bitcoin (BTC) could look stronger relative to stocks and gold on any given day as global liquidity and investor preferences shift rapidly. However, those rallies remain within the framework of the high volatility inherent to crypto and cryptocurrencies.
If you want to read the market in a more disciplined manner, focus on the key triggers: energy prices, Fed expectations, and the direction of risk appetite in equities. Small changes in these three factors can alter the flow of funds from gold to dollars, or from stocks to BTC. That way, you can assess Bitcoin’s (BTC) movements as part of macro dynamics, not just daily headlines.
Also Read: 5 Advantages of Pegadaian Gold Deposit
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Gold-Based Crypto: When Physical Assets Meet Crypto Technology
As blockchain technology develops, gold can now be owned not only in physical form such as jewelry or bars, but also in digital form through gold-based crypto assets.
One of the most popular is Pax Gold (PAXG), a stablecoin backed by one troy ounce (t oz) of 400 oz London Good Delivery gold bullion, stored in Brink’s vaults.
PAXG tokens are available and traded on various crypto exchanges. PAXG is also an attractive alternative for those looking to hedge against inflation or global economic uncertainty, while remaining within the digital asset ecosystem.
*Disclaimer
This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash beforeinvesting. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.
Reference
- Decrypt. Bitcoin Climbs as Stocks, Gold Drop: Iran Conflict Stokes Uncertainty. Accessed March 4, 2026.
