Altcoin Season is Changing: This Crypto Analyst Says “The Formula” Has Changed!

Jakarta, Pintu News – Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, believes that the “altcoin season” that traders have been anticipating may no longer be relevant. He expressed this view in an interview on Wednesday, in line with recent data that shows retail interest in altcoins has fallen sharply.

Matt Hougan Explains the New Altcoin Season

In previous cycles, the movement generally started with a Bitcoin rally, then capital flows shifted to Ethereum, before eventually spreading to smaller-cap altcoins. This pattern is often described as “a tide that lifts all boats.” However, according to Hougan, such a pattern is over.

Read also: Bitcoin Slips to $71,000 Today as Markets Watch for Trump’s CLARITY Act Signature

“I think that game is over,” Hougan said. He emphasized that even if there is an “altcoin season” ahead, it will take a different form: the market will value more assets that have real-world traction and applications that are actually used.

Hougan expects the next cycle to be “more differentiated.” This means that only tokens that are connected to a real business or a clear use caseare likely to see big gains, while other assets risk being left behind.

On the other hand, Bitcoin itself had a rough period. In February, its price dropped to $60,000 before recovering. At the time of Hougan’s interview, Bitcoin was trading at around $70,237.

Altcoin Prices Illustrate the Situation

Price movement data reinforces the rather pessimistic mood of the market. Dogecoin is down about 75% from its cycle peak. Solana corrected by more than 60%. Cardano lost more than 70%.

This drop is not just a minor correction. The pattern reflects months of selling pressure, with capital flowing out of altcoins and into Bitcoin and stablecoins.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index throughout most of February and March moved in the range of “fear” to “extreme fear.” Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index was negative for more than 40 consecutive days in February, indicating US retail buyers were relatively inactive, even on Bitcoin.

Google Trends also shows a weakening of interest: searches like “best crypto to buy” are flat. In the period earlier this month, searches for “bitcoin to zero” even reached a record high in the US.

Read also: Ethereum Holds Above $2,000 Today—What Could Drive ETH’s Next Move?

Social Sentiment Hits a Two-Year Low

Crypto sentiment analytics firm Santiment monitored weekly mentions of the term “altseason” on social media and found that the numbers dropped to the lowest level in at least two years.

This kind of “quiet talk” has, in historical episodes, often appeared ahead of price recoveries. When an “altseason” is talked about, it often coincides with a peak phase. Conversely, when almost no one is talking about it, an accumulation phase may gradually occur.

At the end of February, the number of Bitcoin wallets holding 100 BTC or more approached 20,000 for the first time. This can be read as a signal that large holders are buying during corrections, when retail tends to pull back.

However, not everyone agrees that altseason is over. Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX) stated in December that altcoin season always occurs in a market segment. Analyst Matthew Hyland in November also argued that Bitcoin’s dominance chart indicated weakness, which could potentially benefit altcoins.

However, many analysts think the broad altcoin recovery remains dependent on Bitcoin’s stability first. Pressures from global financial markets, including uncertainties related to the Iran conflict, are also suppressing risk appetite.

Santiment data as of March 6 shows that conversations about the alt-season are still lingering around a two-year low.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• CoinCentral. Altcoin Season Explained: Why Crypto Analysts Say the Rules Have Changed. Accessed on March 6, 2026