Bitcoin has entered the ‘bear market’ phase? Here’s what crypto analysts have to say

Updated

November 21, 2025

Gambar Bitcoin has entered the ‘bear market’ phase? Here’s what crypto analysts have to say

Jakarta, Pintu News – Since last Friday, Bitcoin has been below its 365-day moving average of $102,000, sparking debate among analysts about a possible bear market. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 10, reaching panic levels last seen in early and mid-2022.

Current Bitcoin Market Conditions

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time in a week, sparking bear market concerns. Currently, the cryptocurrency is trading below its 365-day daily moving average, an indicator that previously signaled a regime change in the 2018 and 2021 bear markets. Detailed analysis shows that this indicator effectively separates bullish and bearish phases during the cycle.

This decline is not just limited to price. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is below the realized price for coins held for 6-12 months of $94,600. This is the cost basis for buyers who believe in the bull cycle. If the price remains below this level, many investors will incur losses, which could increase selling pressure.

Technical Analysis and Bear Market Concerns

Bitcoin futures saw the biggest surge in weekly open interest since April, increasing by more than $3.3 billion. Many traders had set limit orders to buy when Bitcoin fell below $98,000. However, the price continued to fall, triggering these orders and creating leveraged exposure in a declining market.

Does a sweeping reversal ((Nov 11) followed by 8 days of lower highs and the completion of a massive broadening top qualify as a bear market?
Targets implied are 81k and 58k
Those who now claim they will be big buyers at $58K will be pukers by the time BTC reaches $60k pic.twitter.com/Z01KKDSGmV
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 19, 2025

Veteran analyst Peter Brandt raised concerns with his technical analysis. Brandt highlights a major reversal on November 11, followed by eight days of lower peaks and a widening peak pattern. His projections for the decline are $81,000 and $58,000.

Whale Accumulation Activity Challenges Bearish Signal

This is a fascinating chart:

While fear and panic had afflicted many investors, the number of BTC Whales has spiked up of late.

Large holders are keeping a level head and buying at discount prices from panic sellers.

Stay strong. pic.twitter.com/z1yWE4U0Ms
— Bradley Duke (@BradleyDukeBTC) November 19, 2025

Although fear metrics show capitulation, on-chain data shows an increase in Bitcoin whale accumulation. Addresses holding 1,000 or more BTC have increased, despite the price drop. This suggests that institutional and large investors see this drop as an opportunity to buy, not the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

This chart is interesting: While fear and panic have befallen many investors, the number of BTC whales has surged in recent times. Large holders have remained calm and bought at a discount from panicked sellers. Stay strong.

Macro Fundamentals Support the Market

The strongest claim against the bear market came from macro fundamentals. Global liquidity is at record highs, with over 80% of central banks easing policy. This broad monetary easing has historically favored risky assets, with cryptocurrencies vulnerable to the liquidity surge.

Macro analysts highlight that central banks are cutting interest rates and adding liquidity. Data from the Bank for International Settlements confirms this trend: US dollar credit grew 6%, and euro credit grew 13% year-on-year through Q2 2025. Credit expansion often triggers a rise in asset prices.

Conclusion

Although abundant liquidity supports asset prices, the IMF’s April 2025 Global Financial Stability report flagged overvaluation of tech assets. The OECD expects global GDP growth to slow to 2.9% next year from 3.3% in 2024.

These factors can limit how much liquidity can boost prices. As a result, analysts weigh abundant liquidity against economic headwinds in the current market.

FAQ

What was the main cause of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $100,000 this week?

Bitcoin’s decline comes as a result of a weakening price structure that is below its 365-day moving average of $102,000, a level that historically marks a bearish phase. On-chain data also shows the price is below the 6-12 month realized cost of holding at $94,600, increasing selling pressure.

When will the turning point of Bitcoin’s (BTC) decline start to appear?

According to Peter Brandt’s analysis, the turning point of the decline began on November 11, characterized by a “broadening top” pattern and eight consecutive days of lower peaks. This indicator showed a shift in sentiment towards bearish market conditions.

Why is the surge in Bitcoin futures open interest sparking concern?

Futures open interest increased by more than $3.3 billion during the week, indicating many traders placed buy orders below $98,000. As prices continued to fall, these orders were executed, creating large leveraged exposures in a weakening market, increasing the risk of liquidation.

Are Bitcoin whales showing signs of capitulation?

It doesn’t. On-chain data shows that the number of addresses with a minimum of 1,000 Bitcoin (BTC) increased despite the price drop. This suggests that large investors are capitalizing on market fears to accumulate.

How are global macro conditions affecting the crypto market right now?

More than 80% of central banks are easing monetary policy, with US dollar credit growth at 6% and euro credit at 13% on an annualized basis. Loose global liquidity has historically favored risky assets including cryptocurrencies.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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