XAUUSD Analysis and Prediction Today, January 9, 2026

Updated

January 9, 2026

Jakarta, Pintu News – XAU/USD (gold vs US dollar) on January 9, 2026 moved relatively stable in the mid-US$4,400s area, with the market awaiting catalyst US labor data (Nonfarm Payrolls/NFP) that could alter interest rate expectations and the direction of the US dollar.

Summary of Today’s Market Conditions

In terms of daily technicals, XAU/USD is observed to be around US$4,471 with a trend structure that is still bullish as the price remains above several major moving averages. Momentum is also considered positive, reflected by the RSI which is still in the “firm bullish” zone according to FXStreet readings.

In terms of fundamentals, the main focus of the market is the release of NFP and its derivative indicators (unemployment and wages), as the data results have the potential to shift expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026. Within this framework, a strengthening US dollar tends to pressure gold, while a weakening US dollar usually gives gold room to test higher areas.

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Important Levels of XAUUSD Today

The closest support is at the 21-day SMA area around US$4,387 as initial “dynamic support”. If the selling pressure continues, the US$4,300 area becomes a psychological zone that intraday traders often monitor, then the next support is near the 50-day SMA around US$4,231 as a support for the medium trend.

The immediate resistance is around US$4,490, which is also associated with a technical limit in the form of a descending trendline from the US$4,559 area. A break and daily close above US$4,490 is generally seen as a signal to open up space for a test of higher resistance near the previous peak area.

XAUUSD Movement Scenario Prediction

Today’s bullish scenario is more likely if XAU/USD is able to hold above the US$4,387 dynamic support and then convincingly break US$4,490. Under these conditions, the market could potentially try to head towards the US$4,550 area, a zone often referred to as the proximity of record highs in FXStreet’s technical narrative.

The bearish scenario strengthens if the US data pushes the US dollar to strengthen further, causing XAU/USD to drop below US$4,387 and lose its short-term bullish structure. If that happens, the downside targets to watch are US$4,300 and then US$4,231, with the risk of deeper weakness if the risk-off pressure and the US dollar continue.

Risk Factors to Monitor

The biggest risk intraday comes from NFP data surprises (stronger or weaker than consensus), as they can change interest rate projections and US yield movements quickly. Rising yield movements generally add pressure to gold, while falling yields often provide support.

In addition to the labor data, the market also monitors news related to US trade policy which can affect the US dollar and demand for safe haven assets. When these factors appear alongside major data releases, XAU/USD volatility tends to increase.

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