Bitcoin (BTC) Braces for a Key Decision from the Fed, What Will Happen?

Updated

September 17, 2025

Gambar Bitcoin (BTC) Braces for a Key Decision from the Fed, What Will Happen?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Markets are eagerly awaiting a key decision from the US Federal Reserve to be announced, with Bitcoin currently trading above the $115,000 mark. This week is considered critical as the outcome of the meeting will provide a clearer picture of macroeconomic conditions, which will shape the outlook for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Risk Index Shows Stability

According to Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Risk Index provides a clear picture of the current market stability. A higher index indicates a more dangerous configuration compared to the last three years, as it signals the possibility of a rapid withdrawal of funds or liquidation.

Currently, the index is at 23%, a relatively low level that suggests that current market conditions are calm and the likelihood of a sharp decline remains minimal. Adler points out that a similar situation occurs between September and December 2023, when the index remains low, allowing Bitcoin (BTC) to gradually build strength.

During that period, volatility was limited, and those calm conditions became the basis for the continuation of the bullish trend. These historical parallels reinforce the idea that the current environment may be favorable for sustained growth if external shocks can be avoided.

Also Read: 5 Reasons Bitcoin Allocation on Wall Street Will Explode by the End of 2025

Macroeconomic Uncertainty as a Key Risk

Bitcoin Risk Index – the higher the value, the more dangerous the current market configuration relative to the last 3 years, with increased probability of rapid pullbacks/liquidations.

Currently, the index is at a low level of 23%, the environment is calm, probability of sharp… pic.twitter.com/RDSjxfTWVg
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 16, 2025

Adler emphasized that the immediate risk lies in macroeconomic uncertainty. With Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve set to announce their latest decision, investors remain wary. Adler even hopes for no surprises from Powell, as an unexpected move could quickly disrupt the calm backdrop.

As markets brace for volatility, many analysts believe that Bitcoin (BTC) could surge in the coming weeks. With low risk indicators, tightening exchange supply, and resilient institutional demand, conditions appear favorable for further gains once clarity from the Fed emerges.

Price Action Details: Keeping Demand Key

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $115,739 after a steady recovery from early September lows, showing resilience as it approaches a critical range. The chart shows that BTC is holding above its 50-day (blue) and 200-day (red) moving averages, while pressuring the 100-day SMA (green), which is near the current level of $114,417.

This area proved to be a crucial battleground for both bulls and bears. Despite intraday volatility, BTC managed to stay above the critical $114,500-$115,000 support zone, indicating demand from buyers whenever the price drops. The next significant resistance lies near $123,217, the previous peak and a key psychological barrier that the bulls will have to reclaim to confirm a breakthrough towards $125,000 and higher.

Conclusion

With the Federal Reserve’s decision to be announced soon, the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), is at an important juncture. The stability shown by the Bitcoin Risk Index and strong support at key price levels offer hope for investors. However, all eyes are on the possible surprises that the Fed might announce, which could change the market dynamics significantly.

Also Read: Maartunn Analyst Says December 2024 Crypto Market Pattern Repeats, What Does It Mean?

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This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.