5 reasons 2026 could be a bounce-back year or a test for XRP

Updated

December 2, 2025

Gambar 5 reasons 2026 could be a bounce-back year or a test for XRP

Jakarta, Pintu News – As we enter 2026, XRP faces a combination of factors that could make it “hunted” again – or even “dragged down” if expectations are not met. Here are five key points based on the latest projections and data.

1. Law & regulation: the big burden is gone

In August 2025, the long-standing lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was officially closed, with an agreement on fines and withdrawal of appeals. This decision confirmed that the sale of XRP on public exchanges is not a securities offering – making XRP’s legal status much clearer than before.

With the end of regulatory uncertainty, the door is open for institutions, large funds, and institutional investors to enter the market, without worrying about major legal risks.

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2. ETF & stablecoin presence: a catalyst for institutional adoption

Once regulations are eased, spot ETFs for XRP will have launched in the US by 2025. These ETF products make it easier for institutions and asset managers to allocate funds to XRP in the form of authorized portfolios – increasing XRP’s appeal as an institutional asset.

Additionally, the RLUSD stablecoin launched by Ripple since late 2024 has grown quite quickly. As a dollar-based stablecoin running on the XRPL network, every RLUSD transaction still consumes XRP as a network fee – this could strengthen XRP’s long-term utility if stablecoin adoption and XRPL usage continue to increase.

3. Scenario 2026: from conservative to optimistic

Various predictions for the price of XRP in 2026 show a large range, reflecting market uncertainty:

The moderate/conservative scenario expects XRP to be in the range of US$2.15-3.00 if market conditions stabilize but there are no new major catalysts.
The “bullish medium” scenario targets US$3.00-4.50 based on moderate adoption, stable ETF flows, and growing XRPL usage.
An aggressive scenario sees XRP reaching US$5-6+ if the combination of legality, ETFs, stablecoins and institutional adoption really work together. Some analysis even calls for a possible “bull case” of up to US$8 or more under ideal conditions.

4. Key drivers: institutions, utilities and market liquidity

If a number of large ETFs (from large asset managers) launch in full and attract large amounts of institutional assets, then liquidity and demand for XRP could surge – giving a strong boost to the price.

Adoption of RLUSD and expanded use of XRPL in cross-border payments or tokenization could increase XRP’s long-term utility. The more payment corridors or transactions using XRPL + RLUSD, the greater the potential use of XRP as a “utility token” – not just a speculative asset.

5. Big risks: failed adoption, competition, and “calculated hype”

Critics of XRP’s bull case mention that many of the positive factors – such as ETFs, stablecoins, and institutional partnerships – are already “reflected” in the current price. If 2026 doesn’t bring new catalysts, the upside potential could be limited.

Competition from other stablecoins (e.g. USDC, USDT), other payment networks, or even CBDC, could reduce the demand for XRP. If institutions choose to use other stablecoins or rails instead of XRP, demand for XRP could be much lower than expected.

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This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying andselling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

FAQ

What made the “XRP US$5+ in 2026” prediction come about?

Due to a combination of three major factors: the end of the lawsuit against Ripple (providing regulatory clarity), the launch of the spot XRP ETF, as well as the adoption of the RLUSD stablecoin – all three are considered significant drivers of utility and liquidity.

If there is no new catalyst, what is the likely value of XRP?

In the most conservative scenario, quantitative models predict that XRP will be in the range of US$2.15-3.00 throughout 2026.

What are the risks that could lower XRP’s potential?

Key risks: institutional adoption or the stablecoin failing to grow significantly, competition from other stablecoins or CBDCs, as well as potential “overhyping” as many positive factors are already reflected in the current price.

Is the RLUSD stablecoin important for the future of XRP?

Yes – since RLUSD is built on top of XRPL, every RLUSD transaction still uses XRP for network fees. If RLUSD and XRPL are widely used, this could increase the real utility and underlying demand for XRP.

Does this mean XRP will “explode” in 2026?

There are no guarantees. A bullish prediction can only be one of many scenarios. Due to high volatility and external uncertainties – from global regulation to macro market conditions – the final outcome depends heavily on the realization of fundamental factors.