Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026: What Do Analysts and Market Data Say?

Updated

January 4, 2026

Gambar Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026: What Do Analysts and Market Data Say?

Jakarta, Pintu News – When it comes to analysts’ views, the outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 can be described as more restrained optimism.

After a year characterized by unprecedented institutional ETF activity and a change in macroeconomic policy direction, price projections for 2026 shifted significantly to the $150,000 target range.

Various Predictions of Bitcoin Price in 2026

Standard Chartered, previously known as one of the most bullish parties in the market, recently cut its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $300,000 to $150,000. The downgrade is based on slower-than-expected adoption of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries, as well as the market’s increasing reliance on ETF inflows over direct accumulation.

Bernstein analysts also carry a figure of $150,000 for the end of 2026, although they remain more optimistic in the long term with a projection of $200,000 by the end of 2027. According to them, Bitcoin has broken out of the traditional four-year cycle pattern and is moving towards a more stable, institution-driven growth path.

Bernstein: "In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.
Despite a ~30% Bitcoin…
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) December 8, 2025

Even Bitcoin’s most vocal proponents are starting to consolidate around that range of projections. Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2026. This view is controversial because he argues that Bitcoin’s volatility actually decreases as the asset matures, contrary to the concerns of many long-time market participants.

On the other hand, there is a much more optimistic group. Fundstrat maintains an upper bound in the range of $200,000 to $250,000, while Charles Hoskinson believes Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, citing a steady supply and the potential for continued adoption by large institutions and corporations.

However, not everyone is convinced of the Bitcoin price increase. A number of conservative projections from Wall Street institutions are now in the more cautious range of $110,000 to $135,000.

Some analysts, such as Jurrien Timmer, see 2026 as a decline phase in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. He foresees a period of consolidation with support areas in the range of $65,000 to $75,000.

Data Shows

Data from Polymarket shows that market participants currently rate a 40% probability for Bitcoin to break $130,000 by 2026. Meanwhile, the chance of a rise to $150,000 stands at 27%, reflecting the market’s expectation of a major breakout with a probability of about one in four.

On the technical front, the 200-week moving average that has historically served as the basis for major cycles is projected to rise to around $72,000 by the first quarter of 2026. This projection indicates a maximum downside potential of around 25% from the current year-end level of around $95,000, a relatively shallow correction compared to previous cycles.

Currently, the MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator stands at 2.4, which is still historically healthy. Market peaks are usually only reached when this indicator surpasses 7.0.

As such, this data implies that even at $150,000, Bitcoin is not necessarily in the end-of-cycle phase, leaving room for a peak scenario in the $250,000 range as projected by Fundstrat and Charles Hoskinson.

Market Cycle Implications 2026

Overall, the data indicates that 2026 will be the defining year of whether Bitcoin’s traditional halving cycle remains relevant or begins to be replaced by the dominance of institutional fund flows.

If a new record high is reached in the first half of 2026, the market could potentially enter a more stable upward phase driven by corporate buying. However, if ETF inflows remain stagnant, conservative levels around $110,000 are likely to be the main area of price contention throughout the year.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

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