5 Important Facts about the US Debt Cut: It Could Shake Crypto and Bond Markets

Updated

November 4, 2025

Gambar 5 Important Facts about the US Debt Cut: It Could Shake Crypto and Bond Markets

Jakarta, Pintu News – The U.S. Treasury surprisingly cut its 2025 fourth-quarter borrowing estimate from $590 billion to $569 billion, or around Rp9.5 quadrillion (exchange rate $1 = Rp16,719). This move is touted as a signal of fiscal stabilization that could get great attention from global investors, including the crypto market.

Here are 5 key points that are being discussed around this debt cut and its implications for the market:

1. Debt Trimmed by Rp351 Trillion as US Cash Position Strengthens

The IDR351 trillion ($21 billion) debt estimate cut was triggered by a higher-than-expected beginning-of-quarter cash balance of $891 billion or around IDR14.9 quadrillion.

This was well above the previous estimate of $850 billion. According to Cryptopolitan’s data, this reduces the government’s immediate need to attract short-term debt.

Utilizing this large cash reserve is also a strategy to reduce pressure on the short-term bond market, which has recently experienced a spike in yields.

Also Read: 5 Shocking Ethereum (ETH) Predictions from Robert Kiyosaki that Made Crypto Hunted by Whales

2. Debt Reduction Could Calm Bond Market

According to analysts quoted by the Financial Times, this debt cut serves as a “stabilizer” for Treasuries, and may provide a positive signal to market participants.

During 2025, the US bond market did come under heavy pressure due to a combination of high debt supply and the Fed’s long-term interest rate hikes.

With short-term borrowing needs falling, investors can more easily predict the direction of interest rate policy and adjust their investment strategies – including in crypto assets such as Ethereum and Bitcoin .

3. Not a Sign of Austerity: Federal Spending Remains High

Despite the borrowing cuts this quarter, economists emphasized that this was not a signal of general budget tightening.

Federal spending remains high, especially for infrastructure, social security, and other economic stimulus programs that are still active until 2026.

This means that the reduction this time is only a “technical pause”, and not a long-term change in fiscal policy direction that can structurally reduce debt pressure.

4. Early Quarter 2026: US Government Plans Rp9.6 Quadrillion in Loans

american government eth transfer — Generated by AI

It is projected that from January to March 2026, the US government will still borrow about $578 billion or Rp9.6 quadrillion, indicating that the trend of large debts continues.

This amount is contingent on year-end cash balances which are predicted to remain high at $850 billion.

The bond issuance strategy will still consider the balance between short-term and long-term debt securities so as not to disrupt market liquidity.

5. Impact on Crypto: Attractiveness of Alternative Assets Could Rise

While debt reduction could ease yield pressures, fiscal deficits remain high, and this means investors will continue to look for hedging alternatives, including in the crypto market.

Assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and resilient altcoins such as Solana could gain traction again, especially if the market sees potential weakness in the US dollar in the medium term.

In addition, crypto investors are also closely monitoring US fiscal and debt policies as part of their global macro strategy.

Conclusion

While the US debt cut is seen as a positive step, the reality is that the government’s borrowing needs remain large. The short-term impact could ease the pressure on the bond market, but crypto markets will remain wary as the trend of fiscal deficits continues.

Also Read: Can You Live Only on Crypto? Here are 3 Sources of Income & Challenges You Need to Know About

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