Critical Year 2028: Bitcoin Strategy Holdings Amid Market Uncertainty

Jakarta, Pintu News – Although Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) has managed to maintain its position in the Nasdaq 100 index, concerns about the sustainability of its business model are growing. Recent analysis suggests that 2028 will be the tipping point that will determine the company’s viability.

Tiger Research Analysis: 2028 as Critical Point

Blockchain research firm Tiger Research has marked 2028 as a key risk point in its analysis of Strategy’s financial structure. The report highlights a critical shift in Strategy’s capital raising approach. Until 2023, the company relied on cash reserves and small convertible notes, with relatively low Bitcoin holdings.

Starting in 2024, Strategy increases leverage by combining preferred equity, ATM programs, and large convertible offerings. The increase in Bitcoin price allowed for larger buyouts, but this created a serious problem: call options on these convertible bonds were concentrated in 2028, creating redemption pressure of around $6.4 billion. Investors could demand early payment, and the company could not refuse.

Also Read: Ethereum Headed to $5,000: Investment Opportunities Ahead of 2026!

No Cash Flow, No Safety Net

Tiger Research shows fundamental vulnerabilities: Strategy used almost all of the capital raised to buy Bitcoin rather than productive assets that generate cash flow. “If the funds were allocated to productive assets, the company would have a natural source of repayment,” the report notes.

Instead, the focus on Bitcoin accumulation leaves little cash available for redemption. If the refinancing option is blocked in 2028, Strategy would have to sell around 71,000 BTC at $90,000. This equates to 20-30% of daily trading volume, potentially triggering a downward spiral across the market.

Rising Bankruptcy Threshold

The Strategy’s static bankruptcy threshold stands at $23,000 in 2025-requiring a 73% price drop. However, this level has gradually increased from $12,000 in 2023 to $18,000 in 2024, as debt growth outpaces Bitcoin accumulation.

“The structural risk of the Strategy appears low under normal circumstances but becomes highly concentrated by 2028,” Tiger Research warns. “If the refinancing fails, selling pressure large enough to affect the entire Bitcoin market could occur.”

The report notes that newer digital asset treasury companies face even greater risks, lacking the layered safety mechanisms that Strategy built through the continuity of the 2022 crash.

Conclusion: The Fate of Strategy in a Critical Year

Meanwhile, Strategy managed to avoid removal from the Nasdaq 100 in a regular rebalancing of the index announced late last week. However, global index provider MSCI is scheduled to review Strategy’s inclusion in January, with some market observers arguing that their Bitcoin buy-and-hold model is more akin to an investment fund than a technology company.

Strategy pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury model in 2020, spawning dozens of imitators in the global market. However, as Bitcoin’s volatility hit the stock price-Strategy is down 47% in three months-questions are mounting as to whether this leveraged bet can survive the upcoming debt obligations.

Also Read: Bitcoin Stuck Below $94,000: When Will Price Recovery Happen?

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FAQ

Q1: What is Strategy?

A1: Strategy is a Bitcoin treasury company that pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury model in 2020.

Q2: Why is 2028 considered critical for the Strategy?

A2: The year 2028 is considered critical as call options on Strategy’s convertible bonds are concentrated in that year, creating redemption pressure of $6.4 billion.

Q3: What are the consequences if the Strategy fails to refinance in 2028?

A3: If Strategy fails to refinance, they will have to sell a large amount of Bitcoin, which could trigger an overall drop in the Bitcoin price.

Q4: How has the Strategy’s capital raising strategy changed?

A4: Starting in 2024, the Strategy increases leverage by combining preferred equity, ATM programs, and large convertible offerings, different from its previous more conservative approach.

Q5: What has been the impact of Strategy’s recent share price decline?

A5: Strategy’s 47% share price decline in the last three months raises questions about the company’s ability to withstand upcoming debt obligations.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Strategy 2028: Critical Survival Test. Accessed on December 15, 2025