BTC & XRP price under threat! Expert: Rally won’t last if oil doesn’t drop to $80

Updated

March 26, 2026

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Gambar BTC & XRP price under threat! Expert: Rally won’t last if oil doesn’t drop to $80

Jakarta, Pintu News – Global oil price volatility is back in the spotlight amid crypto market uncertainty. A leading market analyst, Sam Daodu, warned that the surge in Bitcoin and Ripple prices will not last long if Brent oil prices do not drop to the $80-$85 range. Currently, oil prices are still perched above $94, despite having corrected nearly 12% in one day. This raises concerns that inflationary pressures and high interest rate policies will continue to overshadow risky assets like crypto.

High oil prices hinder crypto rally

Sam Daodu asserts that energy prices, particularly oil, are the key factor linking conflicts in the Middle East to crypto market movements. As long as oil prices remain high, inflation concerns and the tight interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to suppress investor interest in risky assets. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently still holding above the psychological level of $70,000, while Ripple (XRP) is moving steadily around $1.44.

However, both assets have corrected about 4% to 5% from their highs last week due to macroeconomic pressures. The price correction, according to Daodu, has a lot to do with the surge in oil prices, which broke $100 due to the escalation of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. As long as oil prices remain high, inflationary pressures will be difficult to ease and the Fed is likely to refrain from lowering interest rates.

This makes investors’ capital more likely to exit riskier assets such as crypto and switch to safer instruments. Daodu also highlighted that the 24-hour nature of crypto markets makes them highly sensitive to global risk sentiment, so price movements can be very sharp during major news outside of traditional market trading hours.

Also Read: Gold Prices Plummet 7.47% as US-Iran War Heats Up in Late March 2026!

Positive Technical Pattern Held Back by Macro Factors

Despite strong macroeconomic pressures, Daodu sees a fairly constructive technical pattern in the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC) has been forming a pattern of higher lows since the end of February, signaling buying interest whenever the price declines. Ripple (XRP) also showed resilience by staying in the $1.35-$1.45 zone despite geopolitical escalation.

However, Daodu emphasized that as long as oil prices have not dropped to the $80-$85 range, the crypto rally is likely to be temporary. If Brent oil prices manage to drop to the $80-$85 level, either due to diplomatic progress or a potential ceasefire, inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This will open up opportunities for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates, allowing investor capital to flow back into the crypto market.

Daodu thinks that the expectation of looser monetary policy will be a major catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP) to post more sustainable gains. Conversely, if oil prices remain above $100, any positive sentiment in the crypto market will always be overshadowed by fears of inflation and high interest rates.

Positive Crypto Fundamentals Still on Hold

Amid macro pressures, Daodu reminds us that a number of positive fundamentals in the crypto market still remain. Regulatory developments in the United States, such as the SEC’s move to recognize Bitcoin (BTC) as a commodity, are a breath of fresh air for investors. In addition, the inflow of funds into Ripple (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) products and progress on the CLARITY Act are also promising long-term catalysts.

However, all these catalysts are currently being held back by unfavorable macro conditions. Daodu emphasized that the potential for a big rally in the crypto market will only open up if oil prices fall and inflationary pressures ease. As long as macro factors such as energy prices and interest rate policies remain a drag, investors are likely to be cautious.

While the crypto market is highly liquid and able to respond quickly to global sentiment, volatility is also a risk. Therefore, market participants are advised to remain vigilant and pay attention to developments in oil prices as a key indicator of the future direction of the crypto market.

Conclusion

The current state of the crypto market is heavily influenced by oil price dynamics and global monetary policy. Despite a number of positive catalysts, such as regulatory developments and institutional interest in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ripple (XRP), macro factors are still the main determinants. If Brent oil prices are able to drop to the $80-$85 range, the chances of a sustained rally in the crypto market will become more and more likely. However, as long as energy prices remain high, investors need to be cautious and not rush to take positions in risky assets.

Also Read: XRP Freefalls in Early 2026: Will Second Quarter Repeat 2017’s Glory?

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This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.