Bitcoin (BTC) fails to respond to US-China deal, what’s next?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Despite the resolution of the tariff conflict between the United States and China that has been a source of market anxiety during October, Bitcoin (BTC) did not show any improvement.

Last week, the cryptocurrency even recorded a decline of 1.72%. A crypto market that does not respond to positive news shows a significant weakening of momentum. Ethereum (ETH) also fell by 2.55% in the same week, while Solana (SOL) saw a decline of 4.76%.

Geopolitical Failure vs Crypto Decline

A critical period for crypto investors occurred between October 29 and 30, which coincided with the Federal Reserve meeting and a high-level meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. China agreed to three major US demands, including a one-year delay on rare earth export restrictions and restoration of US soybean imports.

In return, the US agreed to reduce overall tariffs against China from 57% to 47%. The two leaders also agreed to reciprocal visits next year. Despite the clarity that came out of the meeting, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle.

On the evening of UTC Sunday, Bitcoin was trading near $110,000, down 9.4% from the price on October 10. On-chain analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weak trajectory to the loss of momentum triggered by the crash on October 10, which led to the leveraged liquidation of around $19 billion from the derivatives market.

Read also: $595.8 Million Liquidated, Why did the Crypto Market Crash Today (4/11/25)?

Powell’s Warning Overshadows Trade Truce

Another important event was the interest rate announcement by the Federal Reserve on October 29. The FOMC lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points and announced the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) effective from December 1-news that was essentially positive for risk assets.

However, Chairman Jerome Powell added new uncertainty by suggesting that the Fed may not make a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. This is the first time Powell has given a concrete opinion on next month’s decision.

Prior to the FOMC, CME’s FedWatch tool showed a December rate cut probability of 91.5%. Powell’s comments caused this probability to drop to 55%, which immediately triggered a 2% drop in Bitcoin price. Although the probability has recovered to 70.4% as of Sunday, the outlook remains highly ambiguous.

Read also: 2025 Still Promising for Altcoin Price Rise? Here’s What Sygnum Says!

New Uncertainty with Fed Officials’ Support

Several Fed officials have publicly supported Powell’s stance. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that Powell’s message accurately conveyed the diverse views within the Fed and appreciated the Chairman’s willingness to signal a possible rate hold in December.

Although the US-China summit managed to reduce October’s geopolitical uncertainty, the Fed has introduced a new layer of uncertainty regarding the future of monetary easing.

Thus, macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and labor data will gain significant influence this week. The Altcoin Season Index, which is a proxy for crypto market uncertainty, reached 41 on Sunday, the lowest level since the second week of August.

Conclusion

This week, a packed schedule of employment data releases will dominate: JOLTs Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the Michigan Inflation Expectations Index on Friday.

Stronger than expected jobs data will increase the likelihood of a rate hold in December. Public statements from various Fed officials, including Governor Lisa D. Cook (Monday), Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman (Tuesday), and Governors Michael S. Barr and Christopher J. Waller (Thursday), are also anticipated to influence the market.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin Fails to Rally on US-China Truce: What’s Next for Price. Accessed on November 4, 2025
• Featured Iamge: Generated by AI