3 Important signals MicroStrategy could sell Bitcoin: mNAV drops, liquidity drags, new risks emerge

Jakarta, Pintu News – For the first time since embarking on a massive Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation strategy, MicroStrategy has publicly acknowledged the possibility of selling some of their 649,870 BTC.

CEO Phong Le cited certain emergencies that could trigger the decision, which is a major shift from the “never sell” philosophy of Chairman Michael Saylor.

Here are 3 crucial points that crypto investors and market participants should pay attention to, based on the BeInCrypto report on November 30, 2025.

1. Sale will occur if the share price is < 1x mNAV and cannot increase capital

In his interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, CEO Phong Le explained that MicroStrategy will only sell BTC if two conditions are met: the company’s shares fall below 1x modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) and the company can no longer raise funds through debt or equity issuance.

Currently, the company’s mNAV hovers around 0.95x – quite close to the 0.9x risk zone. If this figure continues to fall, and capital markets are inaccessible, then selling BTC would be considered “mathematically justified” to maintain the company’s financial stability.

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2. Pressure Comes from Dividend Obligation of IDR13 Trillion per Year

MicroStrategy has a dividend obligation on preferred shares of $750-$800 million (approximately Rp12.5 trillion-Rp13.3 trillion) per year. Previously, these funds were covered from the issuance of new shares. However, with the stock price (MSTR) plummeting more than 60% from its highest peak, the ability to issue new equity has drastically decreased.

If the company’s mNAV falls below the value of the BTC held, and investors are no longer willing to buy new shares, the company could be forced to sell BTC just to fulfill dividend obligations.

3. MicroStrategy is now like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF: Profitable in Bullish, Precarious in Bearish

According to research from Astryx Research, MicroStrategy’s financial structure makes it similar to a leveraged Bitcoin ETF – based on BTC assets but wrapped in a software company. This strategy works very well when BTC prices are rising, but it increases risk when the market enters a downward phase or when liquidity is thin.

Although MicroStrategy insists it does not face the risk of forced liquidation, the acknowledgment of a “kill switch” in their BTC strategy makes the “hodl forever” narrative now more realistic.

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FAQ

When will MicroStrategy sell their Bitcoin?

According to CEO Phong Le, the sale will only happen if MSTR shares fall below their Bitcoin asset value (mNAV < 1x) and the company cannot raise new capital.

What is mNAV and why is it important?

mNAV (modified Net Asset Value) compares a company’s market capitalization to the value of its BTC holdings. If it falls below 1x, it means the company’s market value is less than its BTC assets – a danger signal.

What is the main reason MicroStrategy’s BTC selling risk is increasing now?

As the share price fell dramatically and the capital market was tight, new funding options were limited. Meanwhile, dividend obligations continued to run.

Has MicroStrategy sold BTC so far?

Not yet. But for the first time, the company explicitly stated that a sale is an open option if financial conditions worsen.

Reference:

• Lockridge Okoth/BeInCrypto. MicroStrategy Admits a Bitcoin Sale Is Possible-Here’s When. Accessed December 1, 2025.