Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Becoming Obsolete — Will 2026 Bring a Major Market Surge?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, has stated that the theory of a four-year cycle in the crypto market is now obsolete. According to him, 2026 will be an amazing year with a huge surge in the crypto market. Read his full analysis here!

Market Paradigm Shift

Hunter Horsley believes that the current market trend has been bearish since the beginning of 2025.

“We will realize that since February 2025, we have been in a bear market,” Horsley said.

This analysis shows that recent market fluctuations are no longer just a four-year cycle that can be easily predicted. These changes are driven by new factors that influence market dynamics.

Also read: Where will Ripple (XRP) Price Movement Go Post FOMC?

New Peak Prediction

A report from U.Today mentions that Standard Chartered has also stated that Bitcoin’s (BTC) cutting cycle every four years is no longer a reliable indicator to predict price movements.

Historically, Bitcoin peaked about 18 months after each cut, but now Bitcoin ETFs in the US have significantly changed the market dynamics. To prove this new theory, Bitcoin needs to break the previous record high of $126,000, which Standard Chartered estimates could happen as early as 2026.

Also read: Has JioCoin Launched on Polygon Network?

Analysis from Various Sides

Several other analysts, including Bernstein, also share similar views on the cyclical changes in the crypto market. Meanwhile, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes pointed out that changes in global monetary conditions are the main reason why the crypto four-year cycle is considered to be over.

This opinion confirms that crypto markets are now more influenced by macroeconomic factors and global monetary policy than just the halving cycles that have long been relied upon.

Conclusion

With various analysis and predictions from experts, 2026 is predicted to be a phenomenal year for the crypto market. The changes in the factors affecting the market show that we are entering a new era in crypto, where predictions and strategies must be adapted to the changing market conditions.

FAQ

Who predicted a huge surge in the crypto market in 2026?

Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, predicts that there will be a huge surge in the crypto market by 2026.

What makes the four-year cycle theory obsolete?

Changes in market dynamics, such as the influence of Bitcoin ETFs in the US, have made the cycle of Bitcoin cuts every four years no longer a reliable indicator.

When is Bitcoin expected to reach a new record high price?

According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach a new record high price as early as 2026.

What other opinions support the prediction of a crypto market surge?

Analyst from Bernstein and CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, also supported the view that crypto’s four-year cycle is over, citing changing global monetary conditions.

Why are global monetary conditions thought to affect crypto market cycles?

Global monetary conditions, such as central bank policies and macroeconomic factors, are now more influential on crypto market dynamics than the more limited halving cycle.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• U.Today. It’s Stunning: Bitwise CEO Predicts Massive Crypto Bull Run in 2026. Accessed on December 11, 2025
• Featured Image: Generated by AI