10x Research Reveals Key Catalysts That Could Shape the Crypto Market in 2026

Jakarta, Pintu News – By 2026, the crypto market, which currently has a market capitalization approaching $3.04 trillion, will face a series of significant policy and regulatory changes. With the focus shifting from hype to key dates, policy changes, and rule changes, crypto investors and market participants need to prepare themselves for the new dynamics that will shape the next phase of the market.

Quarter 1: Tight Monetary Policy and Regulatory Pressure

The start of the year will be characterized by tight liquidity conditions. The US Federal Reserve’s initial meeting, the tax deadline and a possible US government shutdown are back in the spotlight in the first quarter, which could add pressure to the market.

The Fed-CME monitoring tool shows an 82% chance that there will be no rate cut in January, which means Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins may experience a decline or sideways movement.

In addition, new rules will come into effect. From January 1, 2026, the EU’s DAC8 rules will require exchanges to report crypto transactions in detail to tax authorities. This could add short-term pressure but also bring more clarity to the industry.

Quarter 2: Leadership Change and Network Enhancement

The second quarter may bring more uncertainty. Jerome Powell will end his second term as Federal Reserve Chair on May 15, 2026. Markets may react as investors try to guess who his successor will be.

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Names like Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh are often mentioned as potential candidates. On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH) is expected to undergo a major network upgrade around mid-year. These changes could create risks and opportunities for traders.

Quarter 3: MiCA Rule Implementation and Increased Volatility

In the third quarter, new crypto rules moved from plans to action. The European Union will implement the MiCA rules in full from July 1, 2026, providing clear laws for digital assets. During this period, US budget issues and the risk of a government shutdown may return.

In the past, similar issues led to government shutdowns lasting around 40 days, which undermined market confidence. As such, markets may react strongly to policy news, especially around the Federal Reserve’s September meeting and key derivative expiration dates.

Quarter 4: Election Volatility and Mt. Gox

The fourth quarter may carry the highest risk of all. The 2026 US midterm elections could add political uncertainty, something markets often react to too late. Later in the year, the crypto space faces Mt. Gox’s last creditor payment, which is scheduled for 2026.

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Mt. Gox still holds around 34,689 BTC, worth nearly $4 billion, which could affect the price of Bitcoin (BTC) when the distribution is complete. In addition, the market will also be about 15 months away from the next Bitcoin halving, a phase that often marks major cyclical changes rather than an immediate price rally.

Conclusion

With various key events scheduled to happen in 2026, the crypto market is expected to experience a lot of turmoil. Investors and market participants should prepare their strategies to deal with potentially significant changes in market dynamics.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Coinpedia. 10x Research Outlines Key Events That Could Move Crypto in 2026. Accessed on December 29, 2025
• Featured Image: Generated by AI