Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Reach a New Peak in 2026?

Jakarta, Pintu News – At the start of 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions show a split in opinion. Some analysts predict a rise to $200,000, while others warn of a potential further decline. With such a significant difference in predictions, it is important to understand the dynamics affecting the current Bitcoin (BTC) price.

December Showed a Pattern, But Basic Signal is Yet to Appear

Bitcoin (BTC) closed December with a negative trend again, a pattern that has been repeating since 2022. Every time Bitcoin (BTC) closes December with a decline, January always sees an increase.

This pattern set the stage for significant price increases in 2025, including the April spike that pushed the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to a peak of $126,000 in October.

Currently, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for short-term holders shows they are still in the capitulation zone, similar to the conditions in April 2025 which then became the basis for the next price surge. However, this time, despite the capitulation signals, there hasn’t been the same reaction from the market.

Also read: Bitcoin (BTC) Strengthens: Will it Continue to Rise Until Early 2026?

Long-term Holders Withdraw

Typically, long-term holders of Bitcoin (BTC) will step in and absorb supply when short-term holders capitulate. This stabilizes the price and starts the next phase of the bull run.

In April 2025, net accumulation by long-term holders peaked at 22,237 BTC in a single day and continued to stay in the positive zone. However, by the end of 2025, the situation was different.

Since October 1, long-term holders have started selling, and the buying has been moderate. The latest peak in December 2025 only reached around 4,862 BTC, much lower than the strength in April. Despite the improvement, this signal is not yet strong enough to turn the market around ahead of 2026.

Also read: 3 Crypto’s that Have the Potential to Set New Record Highs in January 2026

Crypto Whales Step Away, Changing Market Dynamics

Whales, or large wallets holding between 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin (BTC), are currently at an annual low. Their increased presence in April supported a price surge to $126,000. Currently, however, the lack of uptake by whales leaves a significant gap.

The absence of whales as shock absorbers keeps the market vulnerable to downward pressure rather than upward momentum. This affects the bullish outlook, with some analysts suggesting that reaching prices above $150,000 may require patience, liquidity, wider institutional adoption, and time.

Conclusion

With various dynamics at play, the Bitcoin (BTC) market in 2026 will be heavily influenced by the behavior of long-term holders and whales. Whether Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a new price peak or experience a further decline, will largely depend on how these two groups act in the future.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• BeInCrypto. Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026: Bearish Risks. Accessed on January 1, 2026
• Featured Image: Generated by AI