Arthur Hayes Explains Why Venezuelan Oil Could Shape Bitcoin’s Future

Jakarta, Pintu News – Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, released his latest essay asserting that the issue of the United States’ takeover of Venezuela’s oil is not a moral issue, but is directly related to the country’s economic conditions.

Arthur Hayes’ Latest Outlook

According to Hayes, the most relevant factor for Bitcoin (BTC) and financial markets is not geopolitical or moral narratives, but how political leaders manage the economy, credit, and inflation.

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He dismissed the media’s focus on moral and geopolitical issues since the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as insubstantial to market dynamics.

The former BitMEX CEO also highlighted that US President Donald Trump has placed great emphasis on economic stability and inflation control, as these are crucial for future electoral interests, including the 2026 midterm elections and 2028 presidential elections.

Hayes added that voters are generally more concerned about the level of prosperity and financial security they feel when they vote. These perceptions are heavily influenced by nominal GDP growth, ease of access to credit, and fuel prices.

Venezuela Signal

Hayes considers that for Trump and the Republicans, access to Venezuela’s oil reserves has the potential to lower energy costs for consumers in the United States.

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In his analysis, falling fuel prices accompanied by GDP growth will make voters feel that their financial conditions are improving. This situation could be a positive catalyst for risky assets, including Bitcoin.

Hayes is also known to increase his exposure to various crypto assets such as Ethereum (ETH), Ethena (ENA), ETHFI (ETHFI), and Pendle (PENDLE). Based on Arkham’s data, the BitMEX co-founder’s total altcoin holdings are currently worth more than $75 million.

In his view, the market upswing was not driven by geopolitical dynamics, but rather by credit growth and liquidity.

Bitcoin and crypto markets in general have rallied quite significantly since the arrest of Venezuela’s president, with on-chain data showing no indication of panic. As of January 6, 2026, BTC prices are up 0.8% to $93,300, while ETH is up 1.85% and trading at around $3,220 at the time of writing.

Overall market sentiment is now in the neutral zone for the first time since late October. Hayes asserts that Bitcoin’s price movements will be influenced more by macroeconomic factors than the moral dimensions of geopolitical events.

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This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Trading crypto carries high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinspeaker. Arthur Hayes: Why Venezuelan Oil Matters for Bitcoin. Accessed on January 7, 2026