Bitcoin at a Crossroads: 3 Key Events That Could Trigger a Crash or a Rally This Week

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) experienced an unexpected surge to near $95,000, but then fell back below $90,000 this week. Fund flows into Bitcoin ETFs and MSCI’s decision on MSTR have also not been able to provide a clear direction for the market amid geopolitical tensions and mixed employment data.

Traders will be paying close attention to the following three important events that could signal whether Bitcoin will experience a sharp decline or a return to strength.

Bitcoin Could Plummet or Strengthen Depending on US Inflation Data (CPI)

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release consumer inflation (CPI) data for December on January 13. This data is the most anticipated by global investors after the end of the US government shutdown.

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Previous CPI data showed that inflation slowed to 2.7%, the biggest drop since March 2025. Core CPI also fell to 2.6%, lower than expectations of 3.0%.

As Bitcoin price is highly sensitive to inflation data, a further drop in inflation could potentially trigger a rally back towards $95,000. This could also increase the chances of a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points in January, which currently stands at 14%.

However, if the CPI data is hotter than expected, Bitcoin price could be pushed down towards the CME gap of around $88,000. The risk of a crypto market crash will increase amid tightening liquidity conditions and continued withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

In recent days, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of nearly $1.20 billion. This indicates declining risk appetite, as investors continue to profit-take on BTC.

US PPI Inflation Data

The US Labor Department will release Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data for October and November simultaneously on January 14. This data will show how inflation fluctuated during the US government shutdown, which briefly increased financial stress in the US banking sector.

The Federal Reserve responded to the situation by ending its quantitative tightening (QT) policy last December. The Fed also injected billions of dollars to increase liquidity in the financial sector.

In a delayed report from the BLS, producer prices in the US were recorded to have risen by 2.7%. However, the monthly PPI inflation data was higher at 0.3%.

If the upcoming PPI data again shows higher numbers, Bitcoin is likely to experience selling pressure. Major companies on Wall Street have yet to announce their projections, but experts expect the data to be highly volatile in the last few weeks, especially as the housing sector weakens rapidly.

US banks’ earnings season could affect bitcoin price

The earnings season for major US banks is about to begin, with investors optimistic that earnings growth will be strong this year. Analysts expect the total profits of companies in the S&P 500 index to grow by around 13% in 2025 and are projected to rise by more than 15% in 2026.

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The earnings season will be kicked off by JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday. Other major banks such as Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are scheduled to report results later in the week. It is estimated that the financial sector recorded a profit increase of about 6.7% in the fourth quarter.

Although the likelihood of a stock correction is currently considered small, geopolitical events can still shake up market sentiment. For example, after the US military operation in Venezuela, President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of operations in Colombia and Greenland as well – which could affect global markets, including crypto assets.

The activity of Bitcoin traders, “whales”, and institutional investors this week showed mixed signals, indicating the market is still searching for a clear direction.

Analysts give predictions that are also not uniform. According to Ted Pillows, the first level to watch is around $89,200, which acts as a support level. If the price drops below this figure, Bitcoin could potentially drop towards the $87,500 range.

But if the upward momentum remains strong, BTC needs to hold above $95,000 to confirm the uptrend. A daily close above this level will likely push Bitcoin towards the $102,000-$103,000 range.

Another analyst, Michael van de Poppe, said Bitcoin is still in a flat consolidation phase as prices are moving above the 21-day moving average.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities have high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coingape. Will Bitcoin Crash or Rally? Top 3 Events to Watch This Week. Accessed on January 12, 2026