5 Reasons Bitcoin (BTC) Often Rebounds in February Year Over Year

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) in early 2026 showed volatile performance, forming an important basis for short- and medium-term trend blessings. A number of historical analyses indicate that February is often a statistically strong month for Bitcoin, although January has not necessarily ended positively. This lesson is relevant for both young and novice investors who want to understand the seasonal context in the crypto and cryptocurrency markets.

February’s Historical Track Record Tends to Be Positive

Analysis of data from 2011 to 2026 shows that February records positive returns more often than any other month. In that span, only four years produced declines in this month. In some cycles, February recorded double-digit price jumps such as +65.2% in 2011, +54.9% in 2013, and +44% in 2024.

The average growth of Bitcoin in this month reached around +13.1%, with a median return of around +12.2%. This trend makes February one of the most historically reliable months for BTC price movements.

Also Read: 7 Ethereum (ETH) 2026 Price Predictions: Bullish Targets, Risks & Projections

Correlation Between January and February Performance

Historical data also shows that January’s performance often influences the results in the following month. When BTC closes January with gains, February tends to extend the bullish momentum or maintain the positive trend. But even after a weak January, February has been able to show positive results in some years.

This fact shows that February is not just an extension of January’s trend, but also has its own strengths as a period of short-term market direction. For novice investors, this provides important context for understanding seasonal dynamics.

Analysts’ Views on BTC Pressure and Support

Some analysts remain cautious about the potential for further downside as early as 2026. Some technical notes mention key support levels around USD 75 000 and lower targets at USD 65 000, with the 200-week moving average around USD 60 000. On the other hand, strong resistance is expected around USD 88 000.

In this context, volatility is still high, and bullish momentum is not yet fully established. However, historical projections for February leave room for a possible technical rebound if market sentiment begins to show significant improvement.

Market Indicators Show Signal Divergence

Several technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) relative to gold and the Z-Score MVRV point to historically bearish conditions, but also the potential for a reversal. Some analysts think Bitcoin is currently undervalued, so the corrective phase could be considered nearing its end.

This scenario supports the idea that volatility is not always indicative of a sustained downtrend, but can also be territory in preparation for a rebound when market momentum changes.

What Does This Data Mean for Young Crypto Investors?

For young investors and beginners in the crypto market, this historical trend provides an important lesson about the seasonal cycle in Bitcoin price. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, February’s strong statistics show that a downtrend in the previous month does not automatically imply a negative continuation.

Investors need to distinguish between short-term market conditions and broader medium-term patterns. Understanding seasonal dynamics, technical support, and on-chain indicators helps manage expectations without getting caught up in excessive speculation.

Also Read: 7 Gold Price Predictions for February 2026: Rise, Scenarios & Risk Factors!

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference

• Binance. Will February bring an increase in Bitcoin? What does the analysis of historical trends say? Accessed February 4, 2026.