Signs of an Altcoin Breakout are Building for March, Despite a Slow Market

Jakarta, Pintu News – Although the market recovery in February is still relatively fragile, this period showed a number of signals that are worth watching. These indications have led some analysts to predict that “altcoin season” could potentially occur in March.

However, investor sentiment remains cautious. Capital is also still flowing more into Bitcoin (BTC) than altcoins, which could hinder a broader recovery.

Hope Returns to Altcoin Market in March

Data from CryptoQuant shows that only about 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA). This means that the remaining 95% are still below that level, reflecting the currently weak performance of altcoins.

Read also: Bitcoin Slips to $66,000 as Selling Pressure Keeps Building

Even so, historical patterns provide a glimmer of hope. In the past two years, this ratio has generally stayed below 15% for a maximum of five months before finally turning upwards. A similar pattern emerged in the June-October 2024 period and again in February-June 2025.

The ratio started to decline since October last year and has now entered the end of the fifth month. This development is driving expectations of a potential uptick in demand, as investors may perceive that most altcoins have dropped to a more attractive price area.

Meanwhile, some analysts also identified early positive signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart in February, which is a comparison of the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin) to BTC.

Blade analysts think the chart shows potential signs of reversal on the monthly time frame. The MACD indicator has crossed the signal line and formed the first green histogram bars since early 2024. Similar signals have appeared before the big altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.

“Momentum change plus structural compression is usually a precursor to expansion. The biggest altseason is coming,” Blade predicts.

These factors reinforce the expectation that altcoins are likely to record a recovery in March.

Altcoin Investors Are Still Cautious

To see a more balanced picture, data from CryptoQuant shows that the ratio of altcoin trading volume to Bitcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) fell to its lowest level in the past year.

Read also: Ethereum Slips to $1,900 Today as Analysts Weigh What Comes Next

In 2025, this ratio peaked at around 3.5. After that, the figure declined gradually, dropping below 2.5 towards the end of last year, and then continued to stay around 2.2 at the beginning of 2026.

This trend indicates that investors’ expectations of an altcoin season are still weak. Capital flows are still mainly concentrated on Bitcoin, while altcoins receive relatively less attention on centralized exchanges. A truly robust altcoin season would likely require sustained capital rotation as well as an influx of new funds into the market.

At the time of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 43, still far from the 75-point threshold generally used to confirm altcoin season.

A recent report by the BeInCrypto website also mentioned that the altcoin market experienced 13 consecutive months of net selling pressure. Even if the altcoin season does happen, the opportunities tend to be selective and more driven by projects with strong fundamentals.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. Altcoin Season: Will Altcoins Break Out in March?. Accessed on March 2, 2026