Gold Price Forecast for 2026: Peter Schiff Expects a Rally to $11,400 After the Recent Plunge

Jakarta, Pintu News – Gold prices are experiencing one of the worst monthly periods in decades. Nine consecutive trading sessions closed in the red. In one month, the price is down 13%. From its all-time record high in January, gold has even slumped 27%.

However, one of the world’s most famous gold advocates is not letting go of his holdings. Instead, he has increased his purchases and believes that the biggest surge in gold’s history has just begun.

Here’s everything you need to understand about why gold prices are falling right now, what’s likely to happen after this, and why Peter Schiff thinks this selloff will eventually end at $11,400.

Why the Gold Price is Falling Today

On Monday (23/3), gold was trading at around $4,350 per ounce, down 3% in one session and 13.18% weaker than a month ago. The precious metal had reached an all-time record high of $5,608 in January 2026, and has continued to move down since then.

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The cause is actually quite obvious. The Iran war pushed oil prices to $112 per barrel, or about Rp1,892,576 per barrel. The rise in oil prices magnified inflationary pressures. Inflation then makes the Federal Reserve have to keep interest rates high.

High interest rates make US government bonds more attractive than gold, which does not provide an interest yield. As a result, many investors are dumping gold in favor of bonds. The pattern is as simple as that.

Now, the market is also starting to factor in the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year. If that happens, bond yields could potentially rise further and in the short term could put additional pressure on gold prices.

Iran Conflict Pause That Didn’t Help Much

On Monday (23/3), President Trump announced that he was delaying an attack on Iran for five days after, according to him, productive conversations with Tehran. The news briefly pushed gold prices up. However, Iran’s state news agency, Fars News Agency, later denied that any talks had ever taken place. The media outlet stated that Trump’s retreat was triggered by Iranian threats to attack power plants across the region.

These conflicting signals made the market not calm, but more confused. Gold prices did cut some losses, but continued their downward trend. Thus, the series of declines extended to nine consecutive sessions, which is the longest streak since 2023.

Trading Economics expects the price of gold to close the quarter at around $4,499, before recovering to $4,879 in the next twelve months. That’s the current market consensus view. However, Schiff thinks the consensus is very wrong.

Peter Schiff’s Gold Price Prediction: Why He Believes It Can Break $11,400

Peter Schiff, one of the most followed figures in precious metals investing, this week shared a historical comparison that immediately caught the attention of financial market participants.

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“In the early phases of the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices plunged 32%, or about 40% of the previous bull market rise,” Schiff wrote.

“After bottoming out, gold then surged 178% in the following three years. Currently, gold has fallen to close to $4,100, a 27% correction, which is also equivalent to about 40% of its rise since the $2,000 level, or about Rp33,796,000. If gold rises another 178% from that low point, it could reach $11,400 or around Rp192,637,200.”

The numbers look very similar indeed. The decline in gold prices from the current January peak reflects a correction pattern similar to the decline at the start of the 2008 crisis, just before the precious metal entered one of the biggest bull phases in its history.

Schiff also rejected the notion that reaching a peace deal between the United States and Iran would be a big negative sentiment for gold.

According to him, if the war ends soon, the impact could indeed depress gold prices in the short term, but not enough to erase the more dominant positive factors. The government, he said, still has to spend money to replenish the weapons that have been used and rebuild the damage caused. This means that the deficit will be bigger and inflation will be higher than if the war had never happened.

The crux of the argument is that the war has permanently worsened fiscal conditions, regardless of the final outcome. A ballooning deficit, high inflation, weakening economic growth, and a dollar that continues to be under structural pressure are all considered to be equally supportive of rising gold prices in the medium to long term.

Schiff even asserted that if one was already bullish on gold before the war broke out, then it should be even stronger now.

Gold Price Prediction: What’s the Data Say?

As of March 23, the price of gold was at $4,462 per ounce or around IDR 75,404,276 per ounce. The all-time record high was recorded at $5,608 or around Rp94,760,384 in January 2026. From that peak level, gold prices are now still down 27%. However, compared to one year ago, gold still recorded an increase of 48.27%.

On the other hand, the Trading Economics consensus expects gold prices to be around $4,499 by the end of this quarter and rise to around $4,879 in the next twelve months. Meanwhile, Peter Schiff’s target from a low of $4,100 is much higher at $11,400.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinpedia. Gold Price Prediction 2026: Peter Schiff Says $11,400 Is Coming After The Worst Losing Streak In Years. Accessed on March 25, 2026